Pandemic or no pandemic?

******

CORRECTION

A story on Page 6A on Nov. 26 misstated the stance of anthropologist and author Wendy Orent on the likelihood of a future outbreak of pandemic flu. Orent says she does not believe a flu pandemic is imminent and thinks one could be averted by early detection of novel virus strains before they become easily spread between humans.

******

In the face of worldwide interest about avian flu and the threat of a pandemic, a growing cadre of skeptics has emerged among researchers and other academics.

Pandemic doubters tend to fall into two camps: those who think the avian flu threat has been over-hyped, interfering with sober-minded preparations for a future pandemic, and those `who doubt a pandemic is imminent.

Dr. Marc Siegel, associate professor of medicine at the New York University School of Medicine and author of a book on avian flu, said he thinks there is much misinformed fear about a virulent avian flu strain in Asia that has been particularly lethal to humans. He would rather see money spent on vaccine research, which would create a more rapid response to a flu pandemic, no matter its origin.

Wendy Orent, an anthropologist and author of a book on the history and future of dangerous diseases, said she thinks a pandemic is inevitable but sees no signs that one will happen soon.

Dr. Robert Brownstein, medical director of emergency services at Rex Hospital, takes the threat of a flu pandemic seriously. But he said he doubts one will strike soon and isn't devoting a lot of time preparing his staff.

"I'm not convinced it's coming down the pike imminently," he said. "We've got so many other pressing problems we're dealing with, I'm not sure that's a rational way to spend our time."