Is the Triangle ready for rail?

Commuters have few reasons to ride in sprawling, parking-rich region

Unlike most of the nation's local rail systems, the $759 million regional line proposed for the Triangle isn't designed to get people in and out of one busy downtown.

Instead, it would stretch for 28 miles, through two downtowns and a spread-out research park. Its path reflects the nature of the Triangle -- a sprawling collection of relatively small cities. Together, they form what would be the least dense region in the country to build a major local rail project.

A review of national transit data shows that of the nation's more than 50 local rail systems, a majority are in regions with at least twice the density of Raleigh-Durham. Another dozen are in areas with density at least 50 percent greater than here.

The unusual nature of the plan to connect Raleigh and Durham with commuter rail has brought fresh scrutiny from federal transit officials, who are focused on hard questions: How much will it cost? How many will ride? How much time will be saved?

There's a reason for the questions. Drivers in fast-growing areas much larger than the Triangle, with more congestion and more density, have not left cars for trains in significant numbers, records show.

The Triangle Transit Authority, which is overseeing the rail effort, predicts that roughly 14,000 people will board its trains daily when they start running.

Comparable systems in Dallas-Fort Worth, South Florida and elsewhere draw from larger pools of commuters but are not seeing as many riders as are forecast for the Triangle.

The line from Fort Worth to Dallas gets 7,300 riders a day. In Florida, commuters in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami board their commuter trains 9,700 times daily. In northern Virginia, about 15,000 take the commuter rail each day.

In each area, the population dwarfs the Triangle's. But TTA chief John D. Claflin says that TTA's service will be more frequent than other commuter rails at times other than rush hours, which will help it attract more riders.

More than that, he said, the future holds promise for rail. He believes this region will embrace the chance to avoid highway congestion if it's available.

"We have to offer alternatives," Claflin said in an interview. "And we have to be prepared for the inevitable $80 a barrel for [oil], when only the rich can afford to drive, when your gas is $6 or $7 a gallon and you can't afford to commute."

A spread-out population isn't the only challenge to the success of rail in the Triangle. Others:

* Cheap, plentiful parking across the region. Many stops on the rail are near places with spacious parking lots, making it easy for commuters to drive instead of ride. The 60 major business locations in Research Triangle Park, for example, are surrounded by free parking lots.

* Small park-and-ride lots at the proposed TTA stations. Under current plans, the largest TTA parking lot would accommodate 444 vehicles. TTA would build a total of 2,000 park-and-ride spaces. Some cities have single lots that big.

* Few stations, long rides. At 28 miles, the Raleigh-to-Cary-to-Durham rail line is planned as one of the longest start-up commuter rail projects in the country. Covering all that ground while keeping within budget constraints means stations are fewer and farther between.

* Skipping numerous high-traffic locations. The system won't run to Chapel Hill, Duke University Medical Center, South Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, North Raleigh or fast-growing eastern Wake County, at least not at first. TTA hopes riders from those areas will drive to rail stations, or get on a bus and link to the rail.