Winning big will be rare indeed

Thousands of North Carolinians will buy scratch-off lottery tickets today, hoping to win big as the state offers the games for the first time in the modern era.

Most won't take home a dime.

At 6 a.m. North Carolina was to become the 42nd state with a lottery. Officials say to expect lines for tickets at 5,000 convenience stores and groceries.

A cold fact many players know -- but set aside -- is that the odds overwhelmingly favor the state. That's how officials can guarantee that the games will raise millions for education.

How long are those odds? Consider this: Six out of every seven tickets will not award a cash prize. Of the relatively few tickets that result in cash winnings, more than half will be for $7 or less. Even so, if North Carolina is like other states, several dozen of the biggest winners in the four inaugural games will generate headlines in coming weeks. But they will be lucky indeed, given that out of 104 million tickets:

* Ten will pay $100,000.

* Twelve are for $21,000.

* Fourteen are for $10,000.

* Thirty-five are for $5,000.

Lottery officials caution that people shouldn't play to get rich. Instead, they say, the games are entertainment, a way to spend extra money and generate pleasant dreams of hitting it big. Besides, they say, profits go to education.

"Oh, the odds are not, not good at all, but it's just a little fun thing that you can do," said Gladys Williams, 67, of Garner. She plans to play soon, probably spending $5 or so.

Players can make choices that increase their expectations of winning. The News & Observer, along with Ken W. Smith, a Central Michigan University mathematics professor who has studied lotteries for 25 years, has crunched the numbers.

If the goal is to win big, the $5 Carolina Cash game offers the best chance.

If the goal is just to win something -- anything -- try the $1 North Carolina "Scenes" game. It has the best payout structure, with 56 percent of sales to be returned as prizes. (To compare, casino games typically pay 90 percent or more to players.)

Some people might win a little more than average, some might win less, Smith said. Most of those winnings, though, will be in free tickets valued at $1. "There will be a lot of little trash prizes, to get you winning," Smith said.

Many tickets will appear to just miss winning by, say, having two symbols for a top prize match when three are needed. That fuels sales from players who think they were close to a big win.

Do not be fooled, Smith said. A ticket doesn't "come close" to winning. It either does or doesn't.

Another way to look at the games is to determine how much you'd have to spend to win a certain amount, based on the odds.

To win at least $10, most people will have to spend anywhere from $35 to $112. The difficulty of winning a substantial amount is more apparent at the higher levels.

To win $50 or more, a player would have to buy, on average:

* $610 of Carolina Cash tickets.

* $1,169 of North Carolina "Scenes" tickets.

* $1,601 of Tic Tac Toe tickets.

* $4,478 of Blackjack tickets.

Andrew Nobel, an associate professor of statistics at UNC-Chapel Hill, said that studying the games won't change their outcome.

"The best thing to do is hang on to that dollar," Nobel said.