Senate races look like nail-biters

Polls show seats up for grabs as campaign hits final stretch

WASHINGTON -- Democrats are even with or slightly ahead of Republicans in three election battleground states that will help determine control of the Senate, a series of polls released today showed.

In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester had the support of 47 percent of registered voters to incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns' 40 percent.

In Ohio, Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown had 45 percent of registered voters, while incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine had 43 percent.

And in Tennessee, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. had 43 percent and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the Republican nominee for the seat being vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, had 42 percent.

Because the polls had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points, the Ohio and Tennessee races are essentially even.

Democrats probably must win all three races to take back the Senate on Nov. 7. They need to gain six seats, and these three are among the six held by Republicans that look most vulnerable.

Another Republican incumbent, Sen. George Allen of Virginia, was locked in a 43-43 percent dead heat with Democratic challenger James Webb, according to a poll released Friday by McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC.

The surveys underscore how much these states are up for grabs and how much rides on the final five weeks of campaigning. The work of both major parties to get their supporters to turn out on Election Day could prove decisive.

Fight for the right

In Tennessee, Mason-Dixon found a close fight for the Republican-held seat being vacated by Frist, who is retiring to run for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

Ford is running as a tough-minded moderate in a state that has leaned Republican and did not even support native son Al Gore when he was the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000. Ford supports the death penalty, voted for the Patriot Act and aired an ad that featured him in the church where he was baptized.

Corker will not be outflanked to the right, however. He supports the Iraq war, vows tougher border security and supports gun rights. He stresses that he cut violent crime as Chattanooga's mayor.

The Abramoff factor

In Montana, Burns has two problems: his mouth and his friends.

Known for crusty speaking since his days as a farm radio host, Burns strikes some Montanans as down to earth, others as embarrassing. But it's his association with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff that could hurt him more. Burns took nearly $150,000 in Abramoff-related contributions, and two of his aides went to the 2001 Super Bowl on Abramoff's tab.

Tester, president of the state Senate, has repeatedly hit Burns on ethics. "I won't sell Montana down the road by cutting deals with lobbyists like Jack Abramoff," Tester said in a recent debate. According to The Associated Press, Burns responded that allegations about his relationship to Abramoff are being trumped up by Democrats for political gain.

Unpopular colleagues

In Ohio, Republican DeWine also has two problems. His are President Bush and Ohio Gov. Bob Taft, both fellow Republicans.

Other polls have shown that Bush and the Iraq war are unpopular in Ohio and that Taft's popularity fell after he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges stemming from a state house ethics scandal.

DeWine is far from out of the race, however. To differentiate himself from Bush, he campaigns as a pragmatist who works both sides of the political aisle. That is underscored by his role as one of the Senate's "Gang of 14," who forged a compromise last year to allow confirmation of several federal judges while preserving the minority's right to filibuster.