Democratic gains may signal political shift

But to where? Despite the victory, voters aren't eager to align with either party, a poll suggests

WASHINGTON -- Republicans lost more than an election Tuesday. They lost their chance to extend the conservative Republican majority that has dominated U.S. politics since Ronald Reagan seized the presidency in 1980.

They may be able to get it back. Or they may be falling victim to one of the decisive shifts in the political landscape that occur about once a generation, when a new coalition consolidates around one party to dominate politics for decades.

It happened in the presidential elections in 1800, 1828, 1860, 1896, 1932 and arguably in 1968 -- only to be interrupted by the Watergate scandal, then rebuilt and expanded in 1980. It hasn't happened since, but the preceding midterm congressional elections often signaled the shift. Will such a new coalition emerge in 2008?

Democrats hope that this week's elections signal that the American electorate is up for grabs as it hasn't been in decades because the Republican coalition has fractured.

Pivotal blocs of swing voters -- including independents, Hispanics and Roman Catholics -- moved away from Republicans this year. Even parts of their once-loyal base, such as evangelical Christians, suddenly were open to voting for Democrats.

It's not that the United States has shifted to a liberal Democratic course. Many of the Democratic gains came with conservative or centrist candidates, such as anti-abortion-rights, pro-gun-rights Democrat Bob Casey Jr., who won Pennsylvania's Senate race. Also, seven of eight states approved amendments banning same-sex marriage.

In an Election Day survey, Democratic pollster Douglas Schoen found that 53 percent of voters said the Republicans didn't share their values, and 47 percent said the Democrats didn't share theirs. "There's a strong sense that the two parties are out of touch with the mainstream," Schoen said.

Thus the country enters the next two years with no dominant ideological or partisan consensus. How voters align for the next era could hinge first on how Democrats govern in Congress, and then on the 2008 presidential election.

Given the rapid changes under way in American society -- where party loyalty is a quaint notion for many, and large blocs such as independents and Hispanics swing from Republican to Democratic -- it's unlikely that either major party can build a durable majority simply with partisan appeals to its base supporters, as both have tried to do in the past.

"We're in a period of great foment," said John Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron. "There are so many elements of the electorate in play. The demographic structure is changing rapidly. We're seeing regional migrations; we can't build exurbia fast enough. Also, the globalization of the economy is by no means over. An awful lot is going on socially and economically."

The result is a shifting political landscape that's ripe for what Green called "attempts at coalitions that might not last longer than one election."

Or temporary coalitions built issue by issue.

One such coalition could be built around comprehensive immigration restructuring, which was supported by President Bush, moderate Republicans in the Senate and Democrats, but blocked by Republicans in the House.

"People may be growing more conscious of the need to balance the right with the left," said Holly Brasher, a political scientist at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.