Political corruption surrounding one of North Carolina's most powerful Democrats, House Speaker Jim Black, seemed a winning issue for Republicans looking to take control of the House in this year's election.

State and federal investigations -- and indictments of Black's associates -- have snapped at the speaker's heels for a year. "House for Sale" signs, implying that Black acted on legislation to help big donors, popped up on lawns.

For a time, it seemed enough to help Republicans win the four additional seats they need to control the 120-member House. That would enable them to shift the priorities in a state government that, except for a two-year period when Black shared the top House job with a Republican, has been under Democratic control for the past eight years.

But political operatives of both parties say Black doesn't seem to be the drag on Democratic candidates that Republicans had hoped for. Black's face has popped up in some unexpected places, such as a coastal Senate district, but it has been hard for Republicans to tie Black to individual candidates.

"Jim Black is an issue. He's not a silver-bullet issue," said Bill Peaslee, chief of staff for the state GOP. "It doesn't seem to have resonated to the extent that we would like."

Rep. Mitch Gillespie of McDowell County, a member of the House Republican leadership team, said it is hard to know whether his colleagues will be cheering or frowning on election night.

The GOP could win a one- or two-seat House majority, he said, or the party could slip a few notches. Republicans want a majority in the legislature so they can control what issues get high priority.

While Democrats tout their spending on education, Republicans paint them as free spenders who don't demand fiscal accountability from state agencies. Republican legislators have tried to push social issues, such as a constitutional amendment to define marriage as the union between a man and a woman, but the Democrats have kept such bills from even getting a hearing. A majority of Republican legislators opposed the state lottery, which passed last year when Democratic Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

Will GOP gain or lose?

Things can change quickly in politics, and Election Day is still more than two weeks away. But instead of talking about what they would do with a controlling majority in the House, Republicans are fighting to keep the 57 seats they have.

"Our caucus is in a rebuilding mode," Gillespie said. "If we don't [take control] this time, we'll do it in '08."

The Republicans' best hope might be to pick up a seat or two in the Senate, where Democrats have a 29-21 edge.

In recent elections, North Carolina Republicans have not kept pace with Democrats in raising money for legislative candidates. Infighting in Republican ranks has hampered organizational efforts and recruiting of candidates. Fraud and bribery convictions in Washington and discontent with the Iraq war appear to be setting a foundation for a big Democratic year nationwide.

"This fall, it looks like Democrats have a greater likelihood of keeping power than Republicans have of seizing power," said John N. Davis, executive director of NCFREE, a business-funded group that monitors state politics.

Legislative candidates cannot count on a presidential or U.S. Senate contest to excite voters. Candidates and their parties must work harder to get voters to the polls in districts that don't have attention-grabbing congressional races or local ballot questions.

Ed Book, a former journalist who runs a Beaufort cafe, said his friends don't talk much about local candidates even though Carteret County has a heated state Senate race.

Next page >