Consider the quandary of the N.C. House Democrats. They face the choice of remaining loyal to House Speaker Jim Black, the architect of the Democrats' return to power, or finding a leader who doesn't risk being indicted.

The predicament spoils what should be happy times for Democrats, who solidified their control of the state House in last month's legislative elections. Instead, the next seven weeks will be marked by political intrigue leading up to the vote for speaker when the legislature convenes in January.

The speaker's race offers enough plot lines for a political potboiler. Will Black, arguably the most powerful House speaker in North Carolina history, be re-elected or indicted? Can Dan Blue, who in the early 1990s became the first African-American House speaker in the South since Reconstruction, make a comeback? Or can the House's leading environmentalist, Joe Hackney, convince big business that he will not be a tree-hugger. And that's just the beginning.

For now, Black probably has the most votes but appears far short of what he needs to win an unprecedented fifth term. At least eight House members are eyeing the post.

"I think it's going to be the most interesting speaker's race we've had in this century and probably in the 20th century," said Brad Crone, a Democratic political consultant in Raleigh.

The Democrats now have 68 of the 120 House seats. Normally, they would caucus in December and nominate a speaker.

But these are not normal times. Black's political associates have been the subject of a dizzying array of investigations by a federal grand jury, the Wake County District Attorney's Office and the State Board of Elections, mainly over allegations of improper political fundraising and lobbying on such issues as the state lottery and video poker.

The speaker of the House holds one of the most influential positions in state government. The speaker appoints committee chairmen and controls the flow of legislation. The state, for example, now has a lottery, in large measure, because Black supported it.

Speaker's races are the ultimate inside politics, with only House members voting.

Before 1989, the speaker's race was almost always settled months and even years in advance -- a royal line of succession of mainly rural, white, conservative-leaning Democrats who would take turns leading the House. But ever since powerful House Speaker Liston Ramsey was toppled by a bipartisan coalition in 1989, the speaker's race has been fiercely contested.

The speaker races have been marked by Machiavellian back-room deals, back-stabbing, and even a co-speakership. In federal court this year, one former lawmaker alleged that money changed hands in a speaker election.

Despite all his troubles, Black still claims to have more votes than any of the other potential candidates -- the result of his having done favors for many of the Democratic House members over the years. His other assets include his skills as a listener and his ability to pull together an ideologically diverse caucus.

Although vote-counting is difficult, the conventional wisdom among lawmakers and lobbyists is that Black has 23 or 24 votes of the 68 Democrats -- and no other Democrat has even close to that total.

"Jim has a very loyal base of support," Crone says. "Black is telling them he has not been indicted, is not going to be indicted and they need to stay on his team. Black's people say he has been under investigation for more than a year. If they had something, they would come, but they don't have anything."

Black could not be reached for comment.

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