Pack betting on Lowe

N.C. State's decision to hire Sidney Lowe as its men's basketball coach was a gamble.

He has no experience as a college coach. By Lowe's own admission, he has a world of catching up to do -- and quickly.

A safer hire would have been an established college head coach who could have started immediately and had first-hand knowledge of the intimidating NCAA rule book.

All of that takes us back to the last time this many national college basketball experts were so convinced that Lowe was in something this far over his head. That time, he led the Wolfpack to the 1983 NCAA championship.

Remember some of those now infamous lines about Lowe and his teammates as they prepared for the title game against Houston in Albuquerque, N.M.?

My favorite was that State would beat Houston "when pigs fly."

But there were others:

* "When an elephant wins the Kentucky Derby."

* "N.C. State: No Chance State."

* "Phi Smacka Packa."

Much of the national reaction to Lowe's hiring has followed a similar path. He's being painted as a hopeless long shot -- a desperate selection by a desperate school.

But my hunch is Lowe will eventually improve State's program and have a long, successful run.

The first step would be to convince sophomore center Cedric Simmons to return to school instead of jumping to the NBA. That won't be easy. Simmons could be a top-20 pick, and the competition in the 2007 draft probably will be imposing. It's even possible Simmons could return, have a solid junior season and still slip in the draft order.

Saturday, Simmons made it clear that he was impressed by the hire.

"This will definitely have an influence on my decision," Simmons said. "Coach Lowe knows a lot about the NBA and what it takes to play there. You have to be impressed by that."

As far as recruiting, Lowe's NBA background should work to his advantage.

Historically, ACC schools haven't often looked to the pros for coaches, with Florida State's Leonard Hamilton being an exception. Lowe will bring a new voice to the regional recruiting mix. It certainly didn't hurt Lowe's posturing Saturday when he mentioned that he needed to return to Detroit in order to help the Pistons' staff put together a defensive game plan for the Cleveland Cavaliers' LeBron James. That sort of name dropping never hurts when you're talking to high school players.

In retrospect, Herb Sendek's biggest problem was an inability to lure top-line talent. The most obvious red flag came when he couldn't get Shavlik Randolph, a lifelong Wolfpack fan and the grandson of a school great, away from Duke. That was one of the few times Sendek and Duke went head-to-head over a target.

Improving State's haul in North Carolina would make a big difference. Many of State's best players were in-state finds -- David Thompson, Tom Burleson and Phil Spence off the '74 national champions alone. Think of where the program might be today had Sendek signed Randolph, Eric Williams, Chris Paul, Anthony Morrow, Anthony King, David Noel and Reyshawn Terry.

Lowe can make a difference for State if he does nothing more than keep an eye on the talent in the neighborhood.

He'll find his fair share of talent near and far. Both would be good starting points.