It was fitting that the Seattle Mariners' Ichiro Suzuki last week legged out an infield single for his 200th hit of the 2009 season. More than any player of his era, Ichiro has built his career on placing singles and beating out ground balls. He's now reached 200 or more hits in nine straight seasons -- a major league record.
Ichiro's hitting prowess in the nine seasons since he came to America from Japan has drawn comparisons to the man whose record Ichiro just broke: "Wee" Willie Keeler, who had eight straight 200-hit seasons from 1894 through 1901. In many ways, Ichiro is the modern equivalent of Keeler, who is a Hall of Famer but is largely unknown among today's baseball fans, except perhaps for the fact that he used the smallest bat in major league history and stood only 5 feet 4.
The Baltimore Chop
Keeler's streak began in 1894 with the Baltimore Orioles. Not the American League Baltimore Orioles made famous by Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken, mind you. These are the 1890s National League rough-and-tumble Baltimore Orioles who were the New York Yankees of their day before the league wiped them out of existence in 1899 -- the last time that Major League Baseball has suffered a contraction of teams.
Like Ichiro, Keeler made his name by beating out infield hits. In fact, Keeler's most successful means of reaching base was appropriately called the "Baltimore Chop." Keeler would swing down on the ball and hit it high into the air off home plate. By the time a fielder could retrieve the ball, Keeler was at first base.
Keeler and Ichiro also share another skill: extreme success at getting base hits. In the middle of his streak of 200-hit seasons, Keeler began 1897 with a then-record 44-game hitting streak, the third-longest ever. Keeler finished the season just as strongly. He hit .522 in September -- the third highest average ever in a single month. Keeler finished the season with a .425 average, which has been topped once in the 112 seasons since.
Then vs. now
The game of the late 1890's was remarkably similar to today's game: four balls for a walk, three strikes for a strikeout and the pitcher stood 60 feet, 6 inches from home plate. But one major advantage that Ichiro has over Keeler is the length of schedule. During most of Keeler's career, the season lasted about 135 games. In fact, if we project Keeler's 1897 season out to a full 162-game schedule like the one Ichiro plays, then Keeler would have had 298 hits in 1897. The current season record is held by -- who else? -- Ichiro, with 262 in 2004.
The best way to get around the schedule length conundrum is to look at Ichiro vs. Keeler on a game-by-game basis. For instance: Ichiro had a hit in 92 of 100 games during a stretch overlapping the 2008 and 2009 seasons. It's a great streak, not only because of his consistency, but also because it's a measuring tool that works regardless of when a season ends or begins.
When we look through all the players in history, only one has ever topped Ichiro's 92 out of 100. You can probably guess who it was.
Ichiro is currently on another amazing streak: almost 170 consecutive games without going hitless in two straight games. Just imagine: More than a season's worth of games without two bad days in a row. Ichiro's streak is still a month short of Keeler's stretch of 209 straight games over 1896-97. And Ichiro's streak is the longest since Stan Musial had 174 in a row from 1943 to 1944.
When we put players from the 1890s onto a modern-day schedule, we get some pretty amazing results. Besides his 298 hits in 1897, Keeler actually would have had nine straight 200-hit seasons. His 186 hits in 1902 that ended the streak would turn into 218 hits with a longer schedule.
At that rate, Ichiro would have to put together 200 more base hits in 2010 to actually surpass Keeler. Keeler also would've finished his career with about 4,000 career hits, rather than peeking in the window of the 3,000 hit club with 2,932.
Who's left?
What all this means is that, if Ichiro keeps playing, we won't be able to compare him with Keeler anymore because Keeler just won't have played enough games in his career. The only remaining player whose place-hitting skills and lengthy career would approach Ichiro's would be Ty Cobb, who played 24 seasons and holds the major league record with a .366 career batting average.
In fact, Ichiro may already be gunning for Cobb. With 2,000 hits already (he was the second-fastest ever to reach that plateau), Ichiro has set his sights on 3,000 hits. Cobb is the fastest to reach 3,000 -- it took him 2,136 games. At his current rate, Ichiro will beat Cobb's record by 29 games.
