Was the Republican-backed sweep of Wake Board of Education elections a sign of larger political changes?
For the past two election cycles in North Carolina, the Democrats have been on a winning streak. But there have been indications in recent months -- polls, town hall meetings -- that the momentum has been moving to Republicans.
The elections Tuesday were the first test of whether voter sentiment is shifting.
It was not a perfect test. The school board elections are officially nonpartisan. They were not held countywide or even citywide, but in GOP-leaning suburban districts. But the Republican and Democratic parties chose up sides. The Democrats backed the slate of candidates who supported the current school assignment plan that includes busing to maintain economic diversity.
The Republicans supported the slate of candidates who called for neighborhood schools and an end to busing. Three of the Republican-backed candidates won, and a fourth had a large lead and faces a runoff.
"Even though turnout was light, to win by an average of 22 points and have a fourth candidate with more than a double-digit lead over his closest challenger is an indication that the Republican challengers tapped into a force out there in Wake County," state Republican chairman Tom Fetzer said. "I do think there is some real momentum just like my election in '93."
Fetzer was elected Raleigh's first Republican mayor in 1993, which turned out to be a sign of the Republican landslide in the mid-term elections in 1994. That year, the GOP won control of Congress and picked up a majority in the state House in North Carolina.
Fetzer sees some parallels, with President Barack Obama's drawing sharp opposition to his health-care plan, just as Democratic President Bill Clinton was attracting strong criticism for his health-care plan in 1993. He also noted that mid-term elections are often difficult for the party in the White House.
Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic strategist, said the parallels with 1994 can be overdrawn "There was a lot of energy on the Republican side and a lot of complacency on the Democratic side," Pearce said.
It is too early to draw conclusions from Tuesday's elections, said Scott Falmlen, a Democratic consultant. If the economy is on the rebound by the November 2010 mid-term elections, he said, Democratic prospects could also improve.
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