Drought's back, but not dire

Record-low rainfall has landed at Raleigh-Durham International Airport so far this year, and the middle third of the state, including the Triangle, is in a moderate drought.

But weather experts say an El Niño pattern that's expected to bring greater-than-average rain through the winter should offset the deficit.

"It's nothing to be concerned about yet," National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Ellis said of the drought.

However, Ellis noted, some municipalities whose water supplies are more drought-sensitive have begun to take precautions.

Siler City in Chatham County, for instance, will begin mandatory water restrictions on Monday. All nonessential water use will be banned, including car-washing, lawn-watering and pool-filling. Violators can be fined $500.

Thirty-four counties in the state, roughly from the Piedmont east to I-95, are in "moderate drought," based on rainfall amounts. Another 22 are considered "abnormally dry."

Meanwhile, the coastal region has received normal rainfall, and the western part of the state has had the most rain it's seen since the remnants of a series of tropical storms came through in 2004. Some mountain areas have seen flooding and crop damage from all the rain.

Even within the drought area, it's spotty, said Ryan Boyles, director of the climate office at N.C. State University.

At RDU, through Oct. 22, only 26.87 inches of rain had been recorded. The least ever recorded previously by that date was 29.93 inches in 1933. In a normal year, 40-some inches of rain would have fallen at the airport.

"The rainfall deficits at RDU would suggest things are much worse than they are by other measures," such as stream flow and groundwater levels, Boyles said. At Falls Lake, the Army Corps of Engineers has slowed releases to increase the amount of water held in the lake, which provides Raleigh's drinking water.

Typically, Boyles said, North Carolina's streams and reservoirs get recharged during the fall and winter, when rain is more widespread than in summer, and the rain that falls is not so quickly evaporated.

"Right now we're not expecting any kind of lingering drought problems," Boyles said. "In any given week, you might not notice a dramatic improvement," but over a period of months, rainfall figures should return to normal.

The N.C. Drought Management Advisory Council is holding weekly meetings and monitoring conditions around the state.

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