Retailers want you to believe the day-after-Thanksgiving sales have arrived early this year.
Don't believe their hype.
Despite aggressive and early marketing, including weekly "Black Friday Now" promotions all month from Sears, the deals are simply just not that good yet.
"These deals are pedestrian," said Dan de Grandpre, editor of www.dealnews.com, a Web site that tracks bargains. "We're talking about 20 percent off Kenmore appliances, and that's a price we've seen before during the course of the year."
Even though it's the first week of November, the holiday marketing blitz has already reached full tilt.
This weekend, JC Penney is touting its "biggest sale of them all."
Toys R Us stores are already staying open until midnight.
And the normally pulse-quickening phrase "doorbusters" is being thrown around like it's a $5 sweater.
The reason for the extra-hard push this year is simple, de Grandpre said. Retailers are scared that sales will slump all the way through the critical holiday shopping season.
"What they're really trying to do is tie up your money as early as possible," said Kathy Sharpe, CEO of retail marketing agency Sharpe Partners in New York.
Additional strategies like Kmart's layaway program are aimed at this same goal, Sharpe added.
"The layaway program is very smart in this economy," she said. "It ties up money early and shoppers are committed to buying early and spending money at Kmart."
Retailers say they are simply responding to shoppers' wishes, but it's clear they've been concerned about generating sales this year for awhile.
Back in July, Sears launched an online holiday store and placed holiday displays in select stores for a few weeks.
Sears spokeswoman Natalie Norris-Howser said the chain's current Black Friday Now campaign was planned after last year's Christmas shopping season and not as a last-minute attempt to drum up additional sales this year.
"Certainly it may appear that way, but it's not that way at all," she said. "This is in response to what shoppers asked for last year. ... Based on our customers' requests, they really wanted to get a jump on holiday shopping. A lot of them don't like to fight the holiday crowds on the day after Thanksgiving."
Similarly, Walmart is introducing weekly rollbacks on items in several categories, particularly electronics and groceries. This week, the chain announced holiday turkeys for 40 cents a pound and touted a full Thanksgiving feast for eight people for $20.
"We do a lot of research to find out what's on their mind, and they are under a lot of pressure right now," said Walmart spokeswoman Christi Davis Gallagher. "A recent survey indicated that 75 percent of our customers are going to have to find ways to stretch their budget this year, so this is really important to them."
Still, there are other retailers who are taking a less price-driven approach to the holidays.
On Friday, Macy's launched its holiday campaign, which for the second year focuses on a sentimental theme: Believe.
Customers will be asked to submit letters to Santa and drop them in the boxes in stores nationwide. There will be a national Santa tour following the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade in New York City.
And there will be a "Yes, Virginia" animated special this year, which references the now-famous letter by 8-year-old Virginia O'Hanlon in 1897 that asked the editor of The New York Sun whether there really was a Santa Claus.
Macy's spokeswoman Dori Robau said the Believe message resonates with shoppers and makes them feel good about shopping at the store.
"Last year, I think customers and communities really responded in a positive way to this campaign," she said. Macy's has a really rich history of giving back to our communities and we think this time of year it's especially important."
As for the real Black Friday deals, don't worry. Those will be coming, too.
Retailers will be up to their normal early-morning, deep-discounting tricks the Friday after Thanksgiving, Sharpe predicted.
"I assume everyone's going to open at 2 a.m.," she said.