There's a lot riding on the decision of an unusually disciplined high school senior today.
Harrison Barnes, a 6-foot-6 wing who's rated the top basketball player in his class, will announce his college choice at 4 p.m. Eastern Time this afternoon in the gym at Ames High School in Iowa.
ESPNU will televise the announcement live. Barnes, whose secrecy has amazed recruiting analysts, will sign a letter of intent that could have a profound effect on the balance of power between Triangle superpowers Duke and North Carolina.
It's generally accepted that since J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams left Duke following their senior season in 2006, North Carolina has had superior talent to the Blue Devils. North Carolina has played in three Final Fours and won two NCAA championships since Duke's last Final Four appearance in 2004.
"I think if Duke gets Harrison, it takes the playing field that has been tilted North Carolina's way ... and it levels it out," Scout.com national recruiting analyst Dave Telep said.
Should Barnes choose North Carolina, he would build on a Tar Heel recruiting surge that has lasted throughout coach Roy Williams' tenure at the school.
There's also a chance Barnes will sign with Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma or UCLA. If that happens, Duke and North Carolina still will have strong recruiting classes.
North Carolina is getting shooting guard Reggie Bullock and point guard Kendall Marshall, who was the most valuable player of the NBA Players Association camp in June.
Duke will add forward Josh Hairston, guard Tyler Thornton and point guard Kyrie Irving, a top-five national prospect whose impact Telep said shouldn't be underestimated.
Because of his ability, maturity and character, Barnes would raise the talent level at any school he chooses.
"He's a rarity in this day and age of kids that want to be the next LeBron or Kobe or what not," said All-Star Sports recruiting analyst Bob Gibbons. "He just wants to be the best he can be and do it within a team concept. I admire him for that, and the school that gets him is going to be blessed by getting a kid with that character and unselfish attitude. Yet he has just this uncanny ability."
Gibbons has been fascinated by the way Barnes has kept his opinions from leaking out during the recruiting process. Barnes has visited all six of the schools on his final list, most recently last weekend with an unofficial trip to Iowa State in his hometown.
Shirley Barnes, Harrison's mother, has skillfully managed the recruiting process to shield outside influences from her son as much as possible. By preventing Barnes' leanings from becoming public, though, the family has increased the interest in his decision among fans and the media.
Telep said word might leak out shortly before the announcement because Barnes might telephone the coaches who have recruited to tell them the news first.
But on Thursday, Telep said, only Harrison, Shirley and Harrison's sister Ashle knew which school would sign Barnes.
"Behind the scenes now, college basketball's millionaire club is biting their fingernails off," Telep said, referring to the coaches.
It's rare for a player of Barnes' caliber to make such a well guarded, highly anticipated decision with Duke and North Carolina both involved. On Oct. 5, Williams and Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski each had a visit with Barnes at his home in Ames.
