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Published Wed, Dec 23, 2009 03:47 AM
Modified Tue, Dec 22, 2009 11:26 PM

Is this Duke team better?

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- Staff writer
Tags: basketball | college | sports

It's not much of a stretch to call the margin of Duke's 76-41 defeat of then-No. 15 Gonzaga on Saturday downright stunning.

The Blue Devils stayed at No. 7 in The Associated Press' poll this week, but Duke's 9-1 start - and the blowout of a quality opponent - prompts the question whether Duke is better equipped to advance in March than in recent years. The answer?

Yes. And no. Here's why.

Over the past five seasons, Duke has failed to advance past the regional semifinals in the NCAA Tournament. That's not necessarily alarming in most programs.

But when you consider that the Blue Devils went to 10 Final Fours from 1986 to 2004, it's clear they have taken a step backward in March.

One of their biggest problems in their past five NCAA Tournament losses has been rebounding. In four of those five games, Duke was outrebounded, the lone exception being the 2007 loss to Virginia Commonwealth. The margin in the past two losses (49-34 against Villanova and 45-19 against West Virginia) was so significant that it gave the Blue Devils little chance of winning.

The bottom line is that Duke hasn't been powerful enough to deal with physical teams from the Big East (Villanova and West Virginia) and players such as Glen "Big Baby" Davis of LSU and Paul Davis of Michigan State. That should be different this season.

With Miles and Mason Plumlee, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek in the post rotation, the Blue Devils have the muscle to avoid getting overpowered in the lane. Duke's current rebound margin of plus-7.6 per game is its best mark since 1998-99.

That number is likely to decrease once Duke starts ACC play, because the competition will be stronger. But Duke's season rebound margin has been better than plus-3 just once since 1999-2000.

And against a Gonzaga team that started a 7-footer and brought a 7-foot-5 player off the bench, Duke posted a 41-29 rebounding advantage.

"Their physical play bothered us as far as finishing shots," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said.

So it's clear that in terms of ruggedness, Duke seems better prepared for March. But two deficiencies on the perimeter still leave questions for the Blue Devils as they seek their first Final Four trip since 2004.

Duke admittedly doesn't have a player who's good at creating his own shot. That's not a problem most games, because few opponents have three players as gifted at scoring as Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler.

But in a loss to Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, the Devils failed to create a basket for themselves with a chance to take the lead in the final minute. This team doesn't have a Jason Williams to create instant offense, and that could pose problems at NCAA time.

Guard Trevon Hughes hurt the Blue Devils with his outside shot and then penetrated for more points, scoring 26 in a 73-69 win. It's easy to predict that Duke would have similar problems stopping John Wall of Kentucky or Sherron Collins of Kansas.

So the Devils have solved their biggest problem with their rebounding, but the question on the perimeter remains.

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