It is one of the immutable laws of American politics that whichever major party is riding high today will be dusting itself off tomorrow.
A year ago, the Democrats thought they had achieved nirvana. Barack Obama was waiting in the wings to replace George W. Bush; Kay Hagan was about to take Elizabeth Dole's Senate seat; Larry Kissell had won Rep. Robin Hayes' House seat; and Bev Perdue's election was about to extend the Democratic hold on the governor's mansion to 20 years - the longest Democratic run east of the Mississippi River.
But a funny thing happened on the road to the Democratic Shangri-La.
The terrible Bush economy became the terrible Obama economy. The Bush wars in the Middle East became the Obama wars in the Middle East. The huge Bush budget debt became the even larger Obama debt.
Many of the independent voters who swung Democrat a year ago have been swinging back to the Republicans.
The health care reform debate has had two salutary effects for the GOP. It reawakened the conservative movement which had grown disheartened under Bush and which was unenthusiastic about Sen. John McCain, the GOP presidential nominee. Many viewed McCain as a closet moderate - moderate being a pejorative term in today's political climate.
The health care fight also showed signs of splintering Democrats. There is talk among angry party liberals of challenging Kissell in the primary election because he voted against the Democrats' health care bill in the House. Ads were also run criticizing Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler for opposing the bill.
The Democrats' self-destructive behavior has been breathtaking. A federal grand jury has been looking into possible wrongdoings by former Gov. Mike Easley. The tabloid headlines involving former Sen. John Edwards keep coming.
We now have conflict-of-interest questions involving former Senate majority leader Tony Rand. Who knows what state Sen. R.C. Soles is up to down in Columbus County?
The bad economy, the Democratic scandals, and tax increases have all combined to make Perdue among the nation's most unpopular governors, according to the polls.
While the Democrats have been reeling, the Republicans have been wheeling and dealing.
The Republicans managed to ride discontent over busing and year-round schools to take control of the Wake County Board of Education. And they won control of the Wake County Board of Commissioners when one commissioner was absent recovering from a stroke and another left the room to go to the bathroom.
A year ago, the Democrats surely could not have envisioned that things would have fallen apart so rapidly.
But we should be careful about projecting that today's Democratic troubles will translate into Republican victories in November. It is possible that the Republican prospects are on an upward trajectory.
But as the Democrats have learned, a year is a long time in politics.
