The Triangle's jobless rate dropped slightly in November to 8.7percent, but economists expect it to continue rising well into 2010.
The latest rate was based on county-level data released Tuesday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wells Fargo Securities economists in Charlotte.
The November rate was a small improvement from October's adjusted rate for the Triangle of 8.9percent. And it was still stronger than November's state rate of 10.8percent and national rate of 10percent.
Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner expects the Triangle rate to top out at 9.5percent this summer.
"We expect around 9,000 jobs to be created over the coming year," he said. "But the labor force will grow even faster than that as folks who dropped out of the work force over the past two years re-enter the work force and push unemployment higher."
Employers remain reluctant to hire across the country, as the economy begins a slow recovery.
This region has seen some new job announcements recently, including expansions planned at technology employers such as Cree, EMC and Talecris Biotherapeutics.
But this area's traditional foundations of government, education and health care aren't rushing to add more workers.
Still, by later this year, the Triangle's unemployment rate will fall as employers create jobs in professional and technical services, health care and construction, said Michael Walden, an N.C. State University economist. He expects that the Triangle jobless rate will decline to 7.7percent by year end and continue dropping in 2011.
"Recovery in the job market will proceed at a slower rate than after previous recessions," Walden wrote in his annual outlook on the state's economy.
That's not uplifting news for the 60,586 people in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties who were out of work in November, according to ESC data. That was 500 fewer people than in October, but the total doesn't count those "discouraged" workers who have stopped looking for work.
"Right now there is a tremendous amount of idle labor in North Carolina," said John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies, an economic and social policy research firm. "Even though conditions have stabilized in recent months, what growth is occurring is insufficient to bring down joblessness and is extremely dependent upon federal recovery programs, which will begin to phase out later in 2010."
The ESC delayed releasing the latest local jobs data until Tuesday because of the holidays. The national jobless data for December is scheduled to be released Friday.
The News & Observer uses the adjusted data for the local jobless rate because they provide a more statistically valid measure of employment. The ESC uses adjusted data when it reports the state jobless rate.
