The wild card in making predictions for 2010 is, of course, the economy. Assuming a modest and unconvincing recovery, I'll float these ideas. A few are a dead cinch, while others are more speculative.
Apple's tablet device is still just a rumor - Apple doesn't talk about these things in advance - but the rumors have been convincing. And on Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News added dates to the rumors: an unveiling later this month and for sale in March. Expect something like a large-scale iPhone in terms of the user experience, with the same kind of interface and a gorgeous 10-inch screen. Whether Apple's tablet is successful will depend partly on price and partly on its ability to build its own set of applications in the iPhone manner, optimized for the device. Should be an interesting multimedia entrant, but I don't see it as Kindle (or Nook) competition because a backlit screen ultimately causes visual fatigue.
Smart phone growth? Better believe it. Research firm IDC predicts there will be 300,000 iPhone apps by the end of 2010 (that's three times the current number), while Google Android applications will shoot up to 75,000 from a current 10,000. I used to think smart phones were just telephones on steroids, but they're really functional computers that fit the hand. Palm could have owned so much more of this space than it does, and it may not make it through 2010 without being acquired.
Watch the netbook phenomenon play out next year as manufacturers succumb to the fatal attraction of bulking up what should be a Net-based, inexpensive workhorse into full-fledged laptop status. Expect new netbooks to run twice their current price by the end of the year.
Flash memory gets more attention as 2010 wears on. These rugged spinning disk alternatives have been overpriced, but watch that begin to change as more people recognize the benefits of fast operation with fewer glitches. Do you really need 160 GB of spinning disk storage on a netbook, or would you be better off with 64 GB of flash memory? I'll take the latter, whose advantages should promote powerful growth in consumer devices and entertainment equipment.
Layering digital data over the objects around us is called "augmented reality." It's gotten to be routine through the use of things like GPS, which can transform a smart phone into a location manager, telling you where you are and how to get where you're going. This year will see an expansion in software tools that do everything from helping you find a good cup of coffee to reminding you of the names of people you meet. Consumer applications of this will explode.
This also will be the year when existing security problems spread like mad to social networking sites. Facebook is an all-too-tempting target for cyber criminals, who will multiply their efforts to get phony applications onto the network to get you to click on malicious sites. Likewise, the tiny URLs, found commonly on sites like Twitter, are a natural target.
