MIAMI -- The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday that it will begin issuing storm watches and warnings about half a day sooner, the biggest change to its warning system in decades.
When a storm is approaching land, forecasters will now send watches advising that tropical storm conditions can be expected in 48 hours, instead of 36 hours. Warnings of tropical storm or hurricane conditions will be issued 36 hours ahead, not 24 hours.
"It's really just the result of the accumulated improvements over time - the track forecasts have been getting better incrementally year after year," said James Franklin, chief hurricane specialist at the center. "And there's been enough of an improvement now that we can feel comfortable increasing it."
Even with the advance warning, though, emergency officials often run into residents who resist leaving.
"They'll say, 'Eh, it isn't that bad,'" said Irene Toner, director of emergency management in the Florida Keys, where hurricane preparations and evacuations are an annual ritual. "Unless it happens to you - unless it really happens to you, unless it happens to a member of your family."
The hurricane center's forecasts have improved dramatically, cutting the error rate to roughly one-third its level in 1970 and half the level of 15 years ago, because of advances in computer models and better satellite measurements. But forecasters still struggle with the more complex issue of predicting a storm's intensity; they say years more work is needed to increase accuracy in that area.
