On this, everyone can agree: Wintry weather is expected to start in the Triangle tonight and continue into Saturday.
Beyond that, the predictions vary, depending on which TV station you're watching, what Web site you're clicking on and how much Red Bull the weather person you're listening to has consumed.
Some are calling for a snow/sleet mix. Others kick it up a notch, warning of 3 or 4 inches of frozen precipitation. Then there are the more, let's just say, animated types. OMG! Run for your lives! Seven inches of snow could be coming! SEVEN INCHES!
Lara Pagano, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Raleigh, said the hype varies from station to station, Web site to Web site, because most use their own weather models.
"I'm taking a couple of different models and comparing," Pagano said. The TV station forecasts "are based off their models, and they are using their best judgment."
WRAL is calling for 5 to 7 inches in the Triangle.
"We are all abuzz about this impending winter storm," said WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner on a Thursday broadcast. "The impacts look pretty big for us."
On WTVD, meteorologist Glenn Willey, predicted snow, sleet and freezing rain, as he touted "the most powerful radar in the Carolinas" during a Thursday newscast.
Meteorologist Bill Reh, in his blog on NBC 17's Web site, said, "The exciting, and sometimes very frustrating, thing is that when I come in tomorrow morning, the updated computer models could change ... and give us more snow or more chances of rain. Either way, I am sure milk and bread will be flying off the shelves soon."
Calls to meteorologists at WRAL, WTVD and NBC 17 went unanswered. Clearly, they were too busy looking at their million-dollar Dopplers.
Just to be fair, we're not without wintry weather hype ourselves. The News & Observer has an Accuweather video on its Web site with a somewhat ominous-sounding forecaster.
"I just want you to stay tuned with us here right through the rest of this week because this is a serious situation setting up here in the Carolinas," meteorologist Paul Pastelok said dramatically Thursday. "We have some problems coming our way."
Pagano, the weather service meteorologist, tries not to roll her eyes too much at all the Sturm und Drang from her TV and computer counterparts.
"I just stick with what I know," she said.
6 inches of something
The service says the Triangle is under a winter weather watch from tonight through the day Saturday. "The exact precipitation type and amounts are uncertain at this time," the service says, predicting anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of snow or sleet.
Triangle government and transportation officials spent Thursday making preparations for whatever the weather brings. Roads were being salted, and JetBlue had already cancelled all Saturday flights into and out of Raleigh-Durham International Airport.
Progress Energy also is preparing. Crews from Florida will be arriving in the area today to assist with any problems brought by snow or ice, said spokesman Jeff Brooks.
The power company has its own meteorologists working for it, and their track record is often better than those of some of the other forecasters. Progress is expecting a "pretty significant winter storm, with snow and potential for ice," Brooks said.
Kelly McBride, a media ethics expert at the Poynter Institute in St. Petersburg, Fla., said weather is often hyped on television because people tune in. (Ratings anyone?) But the more hype there is, the more potential that people will stop listening and ignore the warnings, she said.
"You can also cause people to overreact, inspiring them to hoard things, like fuel," McBride said.
And often, of course, the prognosticators are wrong. Triangle meteorologists got all fired up last month for a snow "event" that never happened. Instead, it rained.
Most give themselves an out on this predicted storm, too.
"Anything could happen between now and then," WRAL's Gardner said Thursday.
"Do not take this as 100 percent gospel truth," said WTVD's Willey.
Back in 2005, the mayor of Moscow wanted to fine the weather service every time it got a forecast wrong, according to The Washington Post.
"We are paying and would like to receive a quality product," Mayor Yuri Luzhkov thundered at a city government meeting attended by a number of forecasters, the Post reported. "Instead of that you are giving us [expletive]!"
Fines sure would be fun. We'd all be rich!
In any event, here's a guarantee from The N&O:
There's a 100 percent chance that it's going to be winter in the Triangle this weekend.
Staff writer Thad Ogburn contributed to this report.
