RALEIGH -- The 2010 political season formally opened Monday, with the next nine months potentially having an outsized influence on Tar Heel politics for the next decade.
Of all the elections that will be held - from the marquee U.S. Senate race to courthouse contests - none will be more closely watched than the 170 seats of the state legislature.
That is because the legislature, as required by the U.S. Constitution, will draw new district maps for the legislature and for Congress in 2011 based on the census that will be conducted this year. Whether those maps are drawn by Democrats or Republicans - or jointly by both parties - could go a long way in deciding who holds power in Raleigh and who goes to Washington.
"The conventional wisdom is that the election preceding redistricting is the most important one of the decade," said state House Speaker Joe Hackney of Chapel Hill, a Democrat. "I would not quarrel with that. We have seen redistricting make a big difference in legislative bodies."
The Democrats have controlled redistricting since the 1800s. Republicans, encouraged by recent victories in Massachusetts, Virginia and New Jersey, hope to capture one or both legislative chambers in November.
"It goes without saying that the next redistricting will dramatically impact the landscape of North Carolina for the rest of our lifetime or at least the decade that follows," state Republican Chairman Tom Fetzer said.
The current district lines, Fetzer noted, tend to put most lawmakers in either overwhelmingly Democratic or Republican districts that discourage competition.
"One of the most dangerous things for North Carolina is 70 of the 170 members of the General Assembly up for re-election in the last election cycle had no opposition," Fetzer said.
Party strategy
Both parties are taking steps to put themselves in a position to control redistricting.
Last month, The American Majority Project, an independent group that is allowed to accept unlimited contributions, was formed with the backing of such GOP figures as former Tar Heel Rep. Robin Hayes of Concord and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to raise money for legislative candidates.
Another Republican group, the Republican State Leadership Committee, has brought on former national GOP Chairman Ed Gillespie, the chief strategist for North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole's 2002 Senate campaign.
As in all but a handful of states, redistricting in North Carolina is a partisan process. The Democrats have a 30 to 20 edge in the Senate, and a 68 to 52 edge in the House.
Andy Taylor, a political science professor at N.C. State University, said if Republicans can gain control of one chamber, they can gain leverage to cut a deal with the Democrats. If they win both chambers, they can draw their own map.
Of the state's 13 congressional districts, only two have changed hands in the past decade: the 8th District, which stretches from Charlotte to Fayetteville, represented by Democrat Larry Kissell, and the 11th District in the mountains, represented by Democrat Heath Shuler.
Polls show strong public dissatisfaction with Congress, and the mood at the State Board of Elections on Monday as the three-week period for candidates to file opened was somber.
"This is a tough year for everybody in terms of what we've been through in terms of a financial crisis that rivaled the Great Depression and the challenges we face coming out of it," Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge said.
"There are a lot of serious issues our nation is facing," Kissell said. "There is a lot of emotion behind the issues."
"It was about the economy when I ran in 2006," Kissell said. "It has intensified. It is still about the economy. It's about jobs."
Officially in the race
Among those filing for Republican Sen. Richard Burr's seat Monday was Libertarian candidate Michael Beitler, a business professor at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, and Democrat Marcus Williams, a Lumberton attorney who has run several times for state-wide office.
Democratic Rep. David Price filed for re-election. Also filing for his seat was GOP challenger Franke Roche, an independent stock trader from Apex.
