RALEIGH -- As much as N.C. State needed and deserved its 68-54 win over 23rd-ranked Wake Forest on Saturday in the RBC Center, the game also served as the latest indication of how quickly this postseason could come and go for most ACC basketball teams.
Last-place teams sometimes manage late-season upsets over contenders in high-profile leagues. But if you believe the oddsmakers, who normally are good at sizing up the relative strengths of teams, the Wolfpack's third league victory wasn't much of a stunner.
Wake, 18-9 overall and 8-5 in the league, was favored by all of two big points at post time over an opponent that last won a conference game a month ago and improved to only 15-13 and 3-10.
It didn't take long for the Pack to expose Deacons flaws, either. Simply by keeping playmaker Ish Smith from penetrating the lane early, State ignited an avalanche of Wake turnovers that quickly turned into a full-blown implosion.
"They took us out of everything we thought we could do," Smith said.
Give State's defense, keyed by Javi Gonzalez, credit for snuffing Smith. But for a team that was being sized up as a No. 5 or so NCAA Tournament seed, the Deacons had zero in the way of Plan B.
For the first time since 1992 - some 575 consecutive games - Wake could not hit a 3-point shot, and it was against a State defense that had surrendered 10 in its past two games and 37 during the league losing streak that dated to an 88-74 win over Duke on Jan. 20.
Eight of the Deacs' 12 misses on 3s were by rookies Ari Stewart and C.J. Harris, who missed 14 of 15 combined shots and suddenly seem to be hitting the famous freshman wall after earning important roles in the offense early.
"That's a concern. It has to be," Wake coach Dino Gaudio said. "We've come to depend on those guys to be our scorers, so that's something we have to be concerned about."
The 54-point total was the lowest of the season for Gaudio's team, and the 14-point margin of defeat rivaled losses to Duke, Georgia Tech and Purdue. Odds are, Wake will use its coming week off to rest the freshmen and patch offensive holes. But by no stretch do the Deacons, for now, have the look of a team that might win two or three games in the NCAA. Among the ACC's dozen, only Duke has that much of a certain upside.
NIT maybe?
On the flip side, State now has three wins over ranked teams and with remaining games against Boston College and Miami could salvage an NIT bid in a season when North Carolina might have to sit out the tournament season altogether.
"We can be a good team, and we have been one at times," Gonzalez said. "We're capable of finishing strong, but it's going to take more of the hustle and defense we played today."
The Pack didn't shoot well - 40 percent - and got whipped on the boards by 19.
But by capitalizing on 23 Wake turnovers, sinking a few 3s and getting decent guard play from Gonzalez, Farnold Degand and reserve C.J. Williams, State didn't even resemble the team that lost by 13 at Carolina a week earlier and was held to 99 combined points in two February losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech.
One win doesn't take the heat off fourth-year coach Sidney Lowe or mark any sort of certain uptick for his struggling program.
But with only a win over N.C. Central during the past eight games, it could have been easy for this team to take a casual approach to the rest of the schedule and sink into a wait-till-next-year shell.
That sort of thing has happened to teams with more potential than this one. It's happened to a State team or two.
Just two seasons ago, Lowe's team lost its last nine and turned what once was a shot at a 20-win finish into an ugly 15-16 final record.
Lowe spent some time Saturday discussing the improved leadership he saw from several players.
It was something he had cited as a void earlier in the week.
"This shows we're still trying and we can still win big games," Gonzalez said.
