Duke, clearly the league's best team, will go as far as its Big Three can take it. Last season, that was good enough to win the ACC but not good enough to win three games in the NCAA tournament. That's where the bar is set, at the minimum, for Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, in Greensboro and beyond.
Virginia Tech and Maryland have the next best guards - Malcolm Delaney and Greivis Vasquez, respectively, who were unanimous All-ACC picks along with Scheyer. Not surprisingly, those teams are probably the two with the best shot at upsetting Duke for the title, and both also have today off.
Then there's Wake Forest. Some nights, the Deacons look like the best team in the league. Others, it's hard to tell if they're even the best team in the Triad.
Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State? Strong up front, suspect in the back - at a time of year when guard play is the ultimate high card, they're bidding no-trump.
Trevor Booker might be the best post player in the league, but he has been on an island all season waiting for the ball. The Seminoles snared a Thursday bye because of the late emergence of freshman shooting guard Michael Snaer, and Georgia Tech's Iman Shumpert and Mfon Udofia are capable of beating Duke one day, losing to Miami the next.
Boston College looks like it should have the pieces, but none of them seem to fit, and we can thank North Carolina for adding the phrase "NIT bubble" to the lexicon. The Tar Heels are mired at the bottom of the standings along with N.C. State (Tracy Smith is jealous of Booker's supporting cast), Virginia (without suspended Sylven Landesberg) and last-place Miami.
Altogether, it has been quite a year for the league, with only one team consistently in the top 25 and a defending national champion that fell to 5-11 in the ACC. Yet it also has been a year that should get the ACC six and maybe seven teams in the NCAA tournament when a much deeper league, top to bottom, saw only four teams make the field in 2006.
The ACC's non-bubble teams - Boston College, Virginia, North Carolina - are as good an argument as any against tournament expansion. The compressed demand to make sure the ACC's eighth-best team gets a shot at the national title must be the most silent of revolutionary movements.
And yet, by Sunday, one of those teams could get hot and play its way in. It really is a tournament just about anyone can win, and it has been a long time since that truly could be said of the ACC tournament.
At the very least, it's the most wide open since 2004, when sixth-seeded Maryland upset N.C. State and Duke in the last nine-team event. Although back then, before expansion, the Terrapins needed only three wins to do it.
That's changed, but the site hasn't: Maryland's run came on the same coliseum floor.
No. 1 seed
Record: 26-5, 13-3 ACC Quarterfinal opponent (Noon, Friday): No. 8 Boston College or No. 9 Virginia
Probable starters
G Jon Scheyer 18.9 ppg, 5.2 apg
G Nolan Smith 17.6 ppg, 3.0 apg
F Kyle Singler 17.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg
F Lance Thomas 5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg
C Brian Zoubek 5.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg
Look who's hot
Junior forward Kyle Singler is averaging 20.7 points over his last six games. He played all 120 minutes in the 2009 ACC tournament to help the Blue Devils win the title. His combination of size and perimeter scoring ability make him difficult to guard, and he finally seems to be acclimated after moving from power forward to small forward at the beginning of the season.
They can win it all if ...
Their defense performs at a high level. Over the last 23 games, Duke is 18-1 when opponents shoot less than 50 percent from the field but 1-3 when opponents shoot 50 percent or better. Versatile defender Lance Thomas needs to lead the way with his energy at power forward.
They will lose if ...
They meet an opponent that hurts them badly on the fast break. The Blue Devils were outscored handily in transition baskets in both of their recent trips to the Washington, D.C., area in losses at Georgetown and Maryland. Guard Nolan Smith, who has the ability to turn steals into quick scores, is the key here.
No. 2 seed
Record: 23-7, 13-3 ACC
Quarterfinal opponent (7 p.m. Friday): No. 7 Georgia Tech or No. 10 UNC
Probable starters
G Greivis Vasquez 19.6 ppg, 6.3 apg
G Eric Hayes 11.0 ppg, 3.9 apg
G Sean Mosley 10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg
F Landon Milbourne 12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg
F Jordan Williams 9.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg
Look who's hot
ACC Player of the Year Greivis Vasquez. There's no one hotter, or better, in the conference. The senior guard's shot selection, and outside shooting, will ultimately be the Terps' downfall, but he puts up huge numbers despite his flaws.
They can win it all if ...
Forwards Landon Milbourne and Jordan Williams help Vasquez, and if the 3-point line is as kind in Greensboro as it is at the Comcast Center. They'll have to physically withstand potential matchups with bruising Georgia Tech and FSU teams, too.
They will lose if ...
Vasquez goes frio and his supporting cast reverts to November form. A potential semifinal matchup with FSU could go south if the Seminoles' big men bring their 'A' game.
J.P. Giglio
No. 3 seed
Record: 22-8, 10-6 ACC
Quarterfinal opponent (9 p.m. Friday): No. 6 Clemson or No. 11 N.C. State
Probable starters
G Derwin Kitchen 8.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg
G Michael Snaer 8.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg
F Chris Singleton 10.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg
F Ryan Reid 6.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg
F Solomon Alabi 11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg
Look who's cold
Solomon Alabi. The 7-foot 1 sophomore, who will be a surefire first-round NBA pick when he decides to come out, has gone eight games without getting more than five rebounds and accomplished the impossible on March 3 with zero in a win over Wake Forest.
They can win it all if ...
Alabi and Chris Singleton get their acts together on offense and someone -- Deividas Dulkys, Michael Snaer or Derwin Kitchen -- can bury an outside shot. You know the defense, intensity and talent will be there, but will the points and coaching?
They will lose if ...
Alabi and Singleton continue to be allergic to scoring while coach Leonard Hamilton rotates his bench to oblivion and erodes the confidence of every guard his team's tournament life depends on.
J.P. Giglio
No. 4 seed
Record: 23-7 overall, 10-6 ACC
Quarterfinal opponent (2 p.m. Friday): No. 5 Wake Forest or No. 12 Miami
Probable starters
G Malcolm Delaney 20.9 ppg, 4.2 apg
G Dorenzo Hudson 14.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg
F Jeff Allen 12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg
F Terrell Bell 6.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg
F Victor Davila 5.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg
Look who's hot
Malcolm Delaney hasn't backed off all season, and he finished the regular schedule with 32 points and nine assists at Georgia Tech.
They can win it all if ...
Boston College or Virginia rough up Duke enough in the Blue Devils' opener, and if Hudson, who missed Saturday's regular-season finale against Georgia Tech with a foot injury, gets back up to speed after a few minutes of court time.
They will lose if ...
They don't shoot well from the perimeter. After all, it was Boston College 80, Hokies 60 on Feb. 24 and Miami 82, Hokies 75 earlier in the season.
Caulton Tudor
No. 5 seed
Record: 19-9, 9-7 ACC First-round opponent (2 p.m. today): No. 12 Miami
Probable starters
G Ish Smith 13.3 ppg, 6.0 apg
G L.D. Williams 9.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg
G C.J. Harris 10.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg
C Chas McFarland 7.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg
F Al-Farouq Aminu 15.9 ppg 10.8 rpg
Look who's hot
Freshman C.J. Harris virtually disappeared when he went scoreless against N.C. State and North Carolina at the end of February, but he's come back nicely, scoring 14 against Florida State and 12 against Clemson in the final two regular-season games to give the Deacons another scoring threat they need.
They can win it all if ...
They keep Al-Farouq Aminu involved in the offense and get consistent perimeter scoring from L.D. Williams, C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart. The Deacons are among the league's best rebounding and defensive teams, which gives them a chance to win four games in a row.
They will lose if ...
It falls on point guard Ish Smith to create the bulk of the offense. Smith has had an outstanding season, but the Deacons have struggled when he's been their primary scoring threat.
Ron Green Jr
No. 6 seed
Record: 21-9, 9-7 ACC
First-round opponent (9 p.m. today): No. 11 N.C. State
Probable starters
G Demontez Stitt 11.2 ppg, 3.3 apg
G Tanner Smith 9.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg
C Jerai Grant 7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg
F David Potter 7.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg
F Trevor Booker 15.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg
Look who's hot
Demontez Stitt has scored 38 points in the Tigers' last two games, including an 18-point performance in the second half at Wake Forest on Sunday.
They can win it all if ...
Their full-court pressure can disrupt opponents, and they find other scorers to take the load off Booker inside. During the Tigers' late-season winning streak, they had Andre Young, David Potter and other players come through with big scoring games.
They will lose if ...
History is any indication. The Tigers have never won the ACC tournament, and they made it tougher on themselves with a loss Sunday at Wake Forest, costing them a first-round bye.
Ron Green Jr.
No. 7 seed
Record: 19-11 overall, 7-9 ACC
First-round opponent (7 p.m. today): No. 10 North Carolina
Probable starters
G Iman Shumpert 10.0 ppg, 4.0 apg
G Mfon Udofia 6.8 ppg, 2.2 apg
F Gani Lawal 13.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg
F Derrick Favors 11.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg
F D'Andre Bell 6.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg
Look who's hot
After stumbling in early February, Iman Shumpert averaged 16 points over the final four games. At UNC on Jan. 16, he led a 73-71 win by scoring 30 points.
Look who's cold
Mfon Udofia hit the freshman wall in early January and stuck to it. His best game during the past month was a two-point, five-assist showing against Kentucky State.
They can win it all if ...
Duke's players start wearing Georgia Tech uniforms and Mike Krzyzewski handles the coaching. The Yellow Jackets haven't won four straight games against ACC opponents since January, 2004.
They will lose if ...
The interior defense is as soft as it was in season-ending losses to Clemson (91-80) and Virginia Tech (88-82). Even UNC might break 70 if the Jackets stand around and watch Marcus Ginyard dunk.
Caulton Tudor
No. 8 seed
Record: 15-15, 6-10 ACC
First-round opponent (noon today): No. 9 Virginia
Probable starters
G Reggie Jackson 12.7 ppg, 4.5 apg
G Rakim Sanders 10.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg
F Corey Raji 11.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg
F Joe Trapani 14.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg
F Josh Southern 4.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg
Look who's hot
Joe Trapani. Nobody played well at N.C. State on Sunday, so throw that one out for Trapani, who posted games of 26, 17, 17 and 14 points, respectively, down the stretch.
They can win it all if ...
If they play to their potential and with urgency. They have the talent and experience, but as Sunday's loss at N.C. State showed, they don't always seem to care. Given the patience with which they play offense - and the kindness of their draw - the Eagles could make a run, but not without an attitude adjustment.
They will lose if ...
The same blase attitude that cost them early home games outside the ACC and strangled them for portions of the conference schedule rules the locker room.
J.P. Giglio
No. 9 seed
Record: 14-15 overall, 5-11 ACC
First-round opponent (noon today): No. 8 Boston College
Probable starters
G Sam Zeglinski 8.8 ppg, 2.6 apg
G Jeff Jones 6.8 ppg, 1.2 rpg
G Jontel Evans 2.5 ppg, 1.9 apg
F Jerome Meyinsse 6.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg
F Mike Scott 11.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg
Look who's cold
Few players in the ACC work harder than Mike Scott, but he's beginning to fade under the load and finished the regular season with two points and one rebound.
They can win it all if ...
Sylven Landesberg recovers his elgibility and brings along four other guys just like him. The toast of the league at midseason, the Wahoos have lost nine straight and are going nowhere.
They will lose if ...
Boston College can score 70 points, which might well be beyond the Eagles' reach. Either way, the winner has to face Duke on Friday to grab a quick parting gift.
Caulton Tudor
No. 10 seed
Record: 16-15, 5-11 ACC First round opponent (7 p.m. today): No. 7 Georgia Tech
Probable starters
G Larry Drew II 8.6 ppg, 5.9 apg
G Marcus Ginyard 8.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg
F Will Graves 9.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg
F John Henson 5.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg
F Deon Thompson 13.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg
Look who's hot
John Henson has shown progressive improvement and confidence since he switched from small forward to power forward last month. The lanky freshman scored a combined 99 points in his last 10 games, compared to 61 points total in his first 21 contests. It's probably not enough for the Tar Heels to make a miraculous push to the ACC title - and thus, earn an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament - but it bodes well for the future.
They can win it all if ...
Several opponents don't show up? Frankly, winning four in a row isn't realistic for this team, much less four in four days. UNC - which has struggled to score, defend, or simply run the right play in ACC competition - has not won more than two in a row since December. After losing at Duke by 32 points in the regular-season finale, there's no reason to think that will change now.
They will lose if ...
They play true to this year's form. That means shooting poorly (their 44.7 percent shooting percentage is the worst for a Roy Williams-coached team), failing to defend, and showing inconsistent effort. Considering the Tar Heels are on the NIT bubble, they may have to win at least one game to earn a bid even to that lower-tier tournament. They have lost to Georgia Tech twice this season - 73-71 at home on Jan. 16, then 68-51 on the road a month later.
Robbi Pickeral
No. 11 seed
Record: 17-14, 5-11 ACC First-round opponent (9 p.m. today): No. 6 Clemson
Probable starters
G Javier Gonzalez 10.0 ppg, 3.8 apg
G Farnold Degand 5.7 ppg, 2.5 apg
G Scott Wood 7.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg
F Dennis Horner 11.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg
F Tracy Smith 17.0 ppg , 7.7 rpg
Look who's hot
Dennis Horner. The senior forward has shown an aggressiveness with the ball and on the glass in the past month that had been absent in the first three-plus seasons of his career.
They can win it all if ...
The bracket's realigned. State has shown it can beat the ACC's best, but big, physical teams give the Wolfpack problems. In Clemson and then FSU in the quarterfinals, those are the league's two biggest and most physical teams. State would need Scott Wood to get hot, like he did at FSU, and then have Tracy Smith pull a Randolph Childress.
They will lose if ...
Clemson's press and size are just too much, and the bad versions of Javier Gonzalez and Horner show up on Thursday.
J.P. Giglio
No. 12 seed
Record: 18-12, 4-12 ACC
First-round opponent (2 p.m. today): No. 5 Wake Forest
Probable starters
G Durand Scott 9.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg
G James Dews 11.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg
G Garrius Adams 4.0 ppg, 2.2 rpg
F Reggie Johnson 5.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg
F Julian Gamble 3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg
Look who's hot
Durand Scott. The freshman guard from New York City has averaged 17.2 points per game in the final five games and has at least given the four Miami fans that exist hope that their team won't go 0-16 in the ACC next year.
They can win it all if ...
The other 11 teams forfeit.
They will lose if ...
Dwayne Collins' leg injury keeps him sidelined, James Dews continues to miss open shots, coach Frank Haith continues to substitute like he has ADD and Scott continues to be a one-man band.
J.P. Giglio
