INDIANAPOLIS -- In the unique dynamic that has marked the basketball rivalry between Duke and North Carolina for decades, unexpected reversals of fortune occasionally occur.
Rarely, however, have the magnetic polar fields flipped so dramatically as during the past three months.
When favored Duke bids for its fourth NCAA championship today against Butler today in Lucas Oil Stadium (9:21 p.m.), many Carolina fans will reflect on this time a year ago, when the Tar Heels routed Michigan State in Detroit to claim the program's fifth title.
Even with the departures of Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green, there was little concern about the future.
In fact, it was easy to envision a scenario in which Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard would usher an influx of competent new starters, while a blend of rookie speed and shooting would keep the Heels potent enough to stay in the national rankings and maintain the neighborhood balance of power.
Having been ousted relatively early from the NCAA tournament for the fifth straight season - a stretch during which Carolina reached three Final Fours and won two titles - Duke was still seen as a problem, but hardly the menacing city-state Mike Krzyzewski supervised from 1986 through 2004.
"It wouldn't surprise me to see these guys back next season going after another trophy," Green said of the Heels.
Added Hansbrough, "Carolina's always going to be a national contender."
No doubt, Roy Williams' program will recover from the 20-17 (5-11 ACC) reality check that ensued.
But so shocking was UNC's descent and so prolific Duke's ascent that it's illogical to think the rivalry will soon undergo a similar turf shift.
It's not a true apples-to-apples comparison, but when Duke unexpectedly crashed amid Krzyzewski's health problems in 1995, the regeneration process hardly happened overnight. The Devils missed the NCAA only the one season but weren't able to make a deep March run again until 1998.
"We had to reinvent our brand during that year or so," Krzyzewski said Sunday. "We had to make some changes. I had to make some changes in the way I did things. It took some time, but we've been better since."
On a smaller scale, changes were made over the past couple of years - a time in which Krzyzewski made a determination to grow closer to his players while reviving the defensive and rebounding emphasis that were givens in the late '80s and early '90s.
It all meshed late this season, when the Devils got tougher following a one-sided loss at N.C. State on Jan. 20 and a closer one at Maryland in early March.
Determined to avoid another early exit from the NCAA tournament, Krzyzewski pushed the players harder.
"He still has that fire," Kyle Singler said Sunday. "He still has that edge. It makes us raise our level ... seeing that in his eyes."
Should Singler return for his senior season in 2011, the Duke edge is likely to stay sharp even though seniors Jon Scheyer, Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas will have to be replaced.
If Singler comes back, a projected rotation that would also include Nolan Smith, Miles and Mason Plumlee, Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry and recruit Kyrie Irving should be enough to send the Devils off as No. 1 in the preseason.
Meanwhile, Williams will have to sort through a complicated personnel mix, not to mention the basic improvements that have to be made in shooting, on-ball defense, passing and dribbling.
Early guess: Duke looms as a near-unanimous first-place pick in the ACC, while Carolina might be projected for no higher than third or fourth, and at a time when N.C. State enters a must-win season for Sidney Lowe.
It's a landscape few fans on either side of the Carolina-Duke bridge could have predicted when the Tar Heels were 11-3 and Duke 11-1 on Jan. 1.
As the Heels roared through the 2009 NCAA field, Scheyer didn't watch.
"It was too tough for me to watch," he said. "Every year we've been out, I haven't watched the Final Four much. But for us, this is where we expected to be when this season started, and we're going to make the most of it."
