North Carolina's unemployment rate dropped for the second month in a row to the lowest level in a year, but economists caution that the recovery has just begun.
In April, the state rate dropped to 10.8 percent, down from 11.1 percent in March, according to new figures released Friday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission. That's still well above the national average of 9.9 percent.
"The strong improvement we've seen is genuine, but it's exaggerated," said Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wells Fargo in Charlotte. "I think the road to recovery is going to have a few potholes in it."
In April, the state added 7,500 jobs, with much of the growth coming from the government and professional and business services sectors. The increase in government jobs is due largely to temporary hiring for the U.S. Census, jobs Vitner said will disappear in a few months.
And overall, there are still about 5,000 more unemployed people than there were a year ago.
"If we were to add 7,500 jobs a month, that would mean we would add 90,000 jobs over the course of the year," Vitner said. "I don't think it will be that many. We think it will be about half that."
For many job seekers, it does not feel like things are getting better.
Steve Noah, 54, has been looking for work for seven months, ever since a plumbing distribution company laid him off after almost 22 years.
Initially, Noah said, he was optimistic that he would not be out of work for long. But after seven months and 80 applications, the Garner resident is frustrated.
"I know things can turn around with one knock on the door or one phone call," he said, "but it's almost to the point where I can hardly imagine getting a job."
Unfortunately, anyone looking for work may face a long search, said John Quinterno, a principal for South by North Strategies, a Chapel Hill research firm specializing in economic and social policy.
Summertime generally sees an uptick in workers looking for a job because college graduates enter the work force and people taking supplemental training or certification courses - as many people nowadays are - graduate from those programs.
In addition, the recent financial instability in the European and U.S. stock markets and the termination of many government credit and incentive programs could also sap the economy's momentum.
"There will be questions about whether the little bit of growth we've had is going to be maintained," Quinterno said. "I don't necessarily know if we're going to see more people being thrown out of work. What I think is going to happen is those who have already been put out of work ... will find it very difficult to go back to work."
Triangle doing OK
Still, Quinterno added, the Triangle is a better place to be than many areas of the country or even the state because technology is emphasized and many companies are poised for growth.
"If you had to pick a region to be in, this is a pretty good place to be," he said. "We have problems, but I think we are better here than we are in a lot of places."
And for now, that is going to have to do for workers such as Noah.
"When I'm thinking rationally and don't feel sorry for myself," he said, "you know there's always somebody that's hurting more than you are and that there's hope."
