Our men and women in Afghanistan are fighting more enemies than just the Taliban. Evidence is mounting that they're also up against Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistan's intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, or ISI.
Dexter Filkins of The New York Times (for my money, the best American reporter-author on Central Asia) has written a devastating and convincing account showing that Karzai has lost confidence in the ability of NATO, and thus the United States, to defeat the Taliban. But like a good poker player, Karzai continues to bluff President Barack Obama and NATO commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal while hedging his bet on the Taliban as the eventual controlling power in Afghanistan.
International correspondents have reported that Karzai is independently and secretly conducting negotiations with the Taliban, as is his brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai. These reports are believable, particularly since Hamid Karzai has sided publicly with the Taliban, and I doubt it's been for show. In April, he even threatened to join the terrorist group as a rebuke to criticism from the United States and other countries over the glacial pace of Afghan reform. Back in October, Karzai fueled the conspiracy-rich Afghan street by implying NATO was ferrying Taliban fighters to northern Afghanistan.
Filkins says Karzai has also refused to consider evidence that implicates the Taliban in the attack on the national peace conference on June 4. He instead suggested to his intelligence director and interior minister that the raid may have been masterminded by the Americans.
This guy's on our side, right?
Experts worry that these pro-Taliban outbursts are manifestations of Karzai's erratic behavior. I disagree. His behavior is smart for a man who values personal power, wealth and security. Remember, Karzai has to live in Afghanistan once Gen. McChrystal rotates out and the roughly 87,000 U.S. troops start to draw down next year. Although Obama has a history of breaking promises (i.e., closing Gitmo) Karzai is wise to bet the president will make good on this vow.
Numerous assessments make it difficult to believe a stable and secure Afghanistan is possible before the drawdown begins. Therefore political reconciliation with the Taliban will be the West's ticket out of the country. Positioning himself as the Taliban's agent, instead of the puppet of the Western occupiers, is smart politics and key to Karzai's survival.
If Karzai has embarked on a journey to win the Taliban's favor, he must make a stop in Pakistan. American political scholar and researcher David Waldman concludes that Pakistan's intelligence service controls the Taliban to a greater degree than Western analysts suspect. In his just-released "The Sun in the Sky, The Relationship Between Pakistan's ISI and Afghan Insurgents," Waldman suggests the ISI holds or controls up to half the seats on the Taliban's supreme council, the Quetta Shura.
In addition to a historical connection, Waldman reports that the ISI controls the Taliban through financial, military and logistical support. But it's the sanctuary Pakistan grants the Taliban that allows the ISI to impose its will on them. That sanctuary also serves as a captivity, since Afghan Taliban leaders have few other places in which to operate. If their benefactors become displeased with the actions of their guests, the ISI simply arrests them and their family members.
But the Taliban still have an ace to play. According to Waldman, it's the personal support of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari. Waldman asserts that earlier this year Zardari went to a secret prison to assure 50 Taliban members that their arrests were merely a public response to American pressure. Many Central Asian scholars have concluded that Pakistan's desire for Afghan chaos is rooted in preventing India from gaining a bigger footprint in the region.
Tell me again President Obama: Just who are we fighting in Afghanistan...and why?
