The Triangle's unemployment rate dipped significantly in May but remains high by historical standards.
After adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, the region's unemployment rate was 7.8 percent in May - down from 8.6 percent in April.
The Triangle is simultaneously "struggling with some of the higher rates it's seen in its modern era" and faring relatively well compared to other communities around the state and nation, said John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies, a Chapel Hill research firm that specializes in economic and social policy.
Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wells Fargo in Charlotte, was encouraged by the unemployment data released Friday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission. The data are not seasonally adjusted; but the Triangle numbers have been adjusted for The News & Observer by Wells Fargo.
"What we saw this spring was a noticeable pick-up in economic activity in the Triangle," Vitner said. "We are really seeing broad-based gains."
A drop in the local unemployment rate was expected. The state's unemployment rate for May, reported last week, fell one-half percent to 10.3 percent. Overall, the unemployment rate dropped in 86 of the state's 100 counties in May.
One cautionary note on the May data is that the U.S. Census Bureau's hiring of temporary workers this spring inflated the numbers somewhat.
"We may get a payback in June or July," Vitner said, "but we are not going to see a complete reversal on this. The trends are in place."
Raleigh resident Willie T. Howard, 30, has been laid off from two security guard jobs this year - first in January, then again in March. He's been working as a day laborer - on days when he can find work - while he searches for a full-time position.
"Money is tight," he said. "Sometimes I have to get help from my sister. I get help from my mother."
But Howard said he's not discouraged.
"I'm just trying to keep on going," he said. "I have faith that something is going to come through."
Vitner sees a local economy that is on the upswing. He projects that the Triangle will generate a net increase of 15,000 jobs this year.
"Six months ago, if somebody left a job, [companies] were more inclined to leave that position unfilled," he said. "Today they are filling that position - and they may even be filling positions that have been vacant for awhile."
Still, without accounting for seasonal fluctuations, more than 65,000 people are out of work in the Triangle.
"It's still a lot of folks," Vitner said. "This is a very high unemployment rate for the Triangle."
Quinterno, the policy researcher, is more pessimistic about the future. He's concerned that the local and the national economy have been "propped up by public policy actions" whose impact is fading.
Besides hiring by the Census Bureau, he was referring to the first-time homebuyer's tax credit - which is expiring - and the phase-out of emergency unemployment benefits by the federal government.
About 60,000 people in North Carolina have stopped receiving unemployment checks since emergency benefits expired June 2 for people who have exhausted their regular benefits, according to the ESC. About 20,000 additional workers are added to that list each week.
A bill that would reinstate emergency unemployment benefits has stalled in Congress.
Without those programs, said Quinterno, it's debatable "if we are strong enough to stand on our own."
