Crime in North Carolina dropped to its lowest level in 25 years last year, according to numbers released Wednesday, but exactly why is subject to debate.
State and federal law enforcement officials were quick to take credit for the improvement, while others say factors such as an aging population and even the down economy could have contributed.
The overall crime rate dropped 8.8 percent in 2009, while violent crime was down 12.5 percent compared with the previous year, State Attorney General Roy Cooper said Wednesday. It was the sharpest single-year drop in crime rates since North Carolina began statewide crime reporting in 1973, he said.
"This is good news for North Carolina's economic development, our safety and our quality of life," Cooper said during a news conference in Greensboro. "But as much as we are pleased with this good news, we cannot stop to celebrate simply because we are in a decline. ... No level of crime is acceptable, and we must be even more innovative in our efforts to fight it so that the rates can continue to drop."
Crime rates dropped in each Triangle county as well, led by a 14.7 percent decline in Chatham County.
Statewide, murders fell 19.1 percent, while robberies were down 17.6 percent and aggravated assaults dropped 10.7 percent. The rate of rapes remained unchanged.
All categories of property crime also fell, led by motor vehicle thefts, which were down 25.8 percent.
North Carolina's drop in overall crime mirrors a national trend, said Jeff Welty, an assistant professor of public law and government with the School of Government at UNC-Chapel Hill. In May the FBI reported a 5 percent reduction in violent and property crimes between 2008 and 2009, Welty said.
Welty said the reasons for the drop in crime are a subject of intense dispute. He said some observers say it's as simple as an aging U.S. population.
"Most crimes are committed by younger people," he explained.
Welty added that there are some indications that property crime declines in a down economy, as counter-intuitive as that might seem. Welty said the U.S. saw a similar drop in property crime during another tough economic period: the Great Depression.
"With more people out of work the expectation is that there would be more property crimes committed," Welty said. "But in recent years that statistical correlation has been quite weak."
Welty said others, like Cooper, credit newer and more efficient policing strategies and longer prison sentences for violent offenders, who cannot commit crimes because they are already locked up.
George Holding, the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District that includes Wake and Johnston counties, took some credit for the improved crime statistics. In an e-mail Wednesday to The News & Observer, Holding said one cause for the drop is the federal government's "vigorous prosecution of violent felons." Holding said that what the U.S. Attorney's Office has done for nearly a decade is "a road map" for reducing crime.
New tools in crime fight
"It's not complicated," he said. "Prosecute and incarcerate."
Cooper released the crime numbers on the eve of Gov. Bev Perdue signing into law legislation that will expand North Carolina's DNA database for criminal investigations. Last week, state lawmakers overwhelmingly passed legislation that will allow police to collect DNA samples from people arrested and charged with certain felony offenses.
The DNA samples will be collected by cheek swab and checked against state and national databases to help solve crimes and compare with evidence gathered from crime scenes.
Cooper said the state's current database includes samples from all convicted felons as a result of a 2003 law. So far, the expanded database has helped solve more than 1,400 cases, he said.
Cooper said Wednesday that adding the DNA samples of people who have been charged with a felony will help solve more than 100 murders, rapes and other violent crimes in the first year alone.
"Law enforcement is constantly confronted with new crime trends," he said. "And that's why we must make sure that officers have access to the best in crime fighting technology, like DNA."
