For would-be beach vacationers, the approach of Hurricane Earl has turned Labor Day weekend into Limbo Day weekend as forecasters try to figure out whether the powerful storm will skim past the North Carolina coast or hit hard.
The hurricane, with sustained winds of about 125 mph, was still east of the Bahamas late this morning and headed directly for the Carolinas. It is expected to begin turning northward, but when and how much it does are crucial questions, said Phil Badgett, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Raleigh
Forecasters expect Earl to curve enough to remain about 100 miles off the coast, but if it doesn't turn as predicted, Badgett said, that could mean big problems for the Outer Banks on Thursday and Friday. Either way, heavy surf, rip currents and coastal flooding are expected.
The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane warning this morning for the coast from Emerald Isle north to the Virginia border; a tropical storm warning covers the coast from Emerald Isle south to the mouth of the Cape Fear River.
Emergency leaders in Dare County, which includes most of the Outer Banks, warned residents and visitors to be ready for gale-force winds, coastal flooding and heavy surf even if the storm stays offshore. They planned to meet this morning to check the latest forecasts before deciding on further action.
Hyde County officials decided they did not have the luxury of waiting, with ferries the only way to get large numbers of people off Ocracoke. They ordered late Tuesday a mandatory evacuation for all visitors and residents of Ocracoke Island. The Department of Transportation planned to send all available ferries to help get people off the island.
An evacuation could ruin what was otherwise shaping up to be a terrific weekend, said Bill Gilbert, who operates the Anchorage Inn and Marina on Ocracoke.
Gilbert said all his rooms had been reserved and that only a few folks had canceled by Tuesday afternoon. Others were still calling to see whether he had space.
'Still watching'
"Most people are still watching to see what it's going to do before they decide to pull the plug," he said. "That's probably because they're saying it's going to move past so quickly and it's actually supposed to be pretty on Saturday and Sunday."
Overwash is likely, according to state emergency officials, given an expected storm surge of 3 to 4 feet and breakers of up to 15 feet.
That could spell bad news for Hatteras Island, just to the north of Ocracoke. That island can be evacuated via bridge, but the only route to the bridge, N.C. 12, is so often cut by overwash in major storms that the state Department of Transportation has begun positioning ferries before storms to get people off.
The DOT put one ferry at a landing on the island and another at Stumpy Point on the mainland after making a test run to ensure the channel between them was open, said spokeswoman Lucy Williams.
The potential for that overwash blocking the highway had folks involved in the rental property business on Hatteras studying the storm's path just as keenly as the meteorologists.
Beth Midgette of Midgette Realty, which manages 550 rental homes on the island, all of them full this week, said it's always unpleasant to have to begin planning for a storm, but the timing of this one, coming right before the "change days" between two big rental weeks, couldn't be worse.
"At least this couple of days of limbo has given us some extra time to communicate with the renters," Midgette said.
The storm was already moving when the current renters checked in, and the company gave them a hefty package of information on dealing with storms, including how evacuations work. The company offers frequent storm updates on a hot line, a website, a Facebook page and by mass e-mail, she said.
Badgett, the weather service meteorologist, said the models that predict the storm's turn away from the coast seem pretty firm. A low-pressure front forming over the Midwest was expected to push Earl to the northeast, squeezing it against an area of high pressure over the Atlantic as it moves north off New England and begins losing power.
The models indicate a 10 percent to 20 percent chance of the storm getting close enough to the Outer Banks to deliver sustained winds of hurricane force, at least 74 mph. If the storm turns as predicted, forecasters expect winds of 25 mph, gusting to 35, with a potential for up to 50, he said.
Trailing Earl, but moving more quickly, is Tropical Storm Fiona. It was predicted to follow a similar curving path north and west, but pass much farther out to sea. Fiona also is expected to remain weaker than Earl.
