Voters will go to the polls Tuesday to pick their legislators - a decision that typically determines the state's future for the next two years. But this year, the stakes are particularly high, and the results could have an impact on North Carolina for years or decades to come.
Republicans, who hold 20 of 50 seats in the Senate and 52 of 120 House seats, anticipate a wave that will carry them to majorities in both chambers. The GOP has not held a majority in the state Senate since 1898; it last held a majority of the House in 1998. Democrats say not to write them off - they maintain they'll end this election season with their majorities intact.
The party that wins control runs the process of drawing maps for the state's House, Senate and congressional districts based on the new census data. The shape of a district helps determine whether Democrats or Republicans are favored there.
This election "determines the landscape for the next 10 years in terms of partisan control and the policy agenda," said Ran Coble, executive director of the N.C. Center for Public Policy Research.
Whoever wins the majority and draws the district lines will influence which party is in power for a decade, including who likely will lead the House and Senate for years. Turnover in top legislative posts is rare. Senate leader Marc Basnight, a Democrat from Manteo, has held the top job in his chamber since 1993.
Democrats and Republicans consistently clash over spending, taxes and social issues. And decisions voters make next week will influence the state's approach to issues as varied as school funding and same-sex marriage.
Here's a look at the agenda for lawmakers in the year ahead:
Budget
The state faces a shortfall next year of about $3.5 billion, or nearly 19 percent of this year's $18.9 billion budget.
Tax revenues tanked when the recession hit. Legislators cut agencies and approved temporary taxes to fill the hole - a 1-cent sales tax increase and the income tax surcharges on corporations and some individuals. The temporary increases expire in the middle of next year. Federal stimulus money also will be gone; lawmakers had used federal dollars in the last two budgets to help pay education and Medicaid bills.
Cutting a budget in which nearly 60 percent of the money is spent on education will be particularly difficult. At 12 percent of the budget, Medicaid, the government health insurance program for the poor and disabled, is the next biggest single state expense.
Even if the state stopped spending money on prisons and shut down Medicaid - something the federal government would not allow - the savings would barely fill a $3.5 billion hole.
"The consequences are huge," said Hannah Gage, chairwoman of the UNC system Board of Governors. The board will meet next week to adopt a budget proposal she described as austere.
A priority next year will be working to keep revenue from tuition increases for the campuses, she said, rather than having the money used for the state budget.
"There's been discussion about the legislature raising tuition and using the money to fill the budget," she said. "I think it is unrealistic for us to think it might not be a part of the discussion this year."
The wrangling over spending starts with the governor's budget proposal, and Gov. Bev Perdue's chief budget officer told agencies to prepare plans for cuts of as much as 15 percent.
Perdue expects to publicly outline her plan for reshaping state government next month, spokeswoman Chrissy Pearson said.
"Everything is on the table," Pearson said. "She's looking to cut and eliminate and consolidate."
House Speaker Joe Hackney, an Orange County Democrat, said the plan is to wait for Perdue to present her ideas and then have the legislature come up with its changes, as it always does.
Meanwhile, Republicans promise a budget with no increases in the tax rate. House Minority Leader Paul Stam, an Apex Republican, said repealing tax loopholes, combining state agencies - the departments of corrections, crime control and juvenile justice, for example - can help close the budget gap.
The budget will require thorough combing for duplicative programs, said Sen. Phil Berger, an Eden Republican and the chamber's current minority leader.
"What we've said all along is that we're going to go through the budget line item by line item, program by program, and prioritize our spending," Berger said.
Coble said department reorganizations and efficiency measures won't come close to saving $3 billion. "Those things will save you a million or two," he said. "You have to find things that will save you a billion or three."
Hackney said Republicans don't have a plan for balancing the budget. "What they've said amounts to bumper-sticker slogans," he said.
In 2011, budget negotiations could be especially tense. Perdue and the Democratic legislature clashed over spending priorities, and no one knows how she and a Republican legislature would interact.
"We still have an executive with a veto," Coble said. "Divided government slows down a number of things that can be gotten through and passed into law."
Redistricting
The legislature redraws legislative and congressional districts at least once every decade after the Census.
Democrats were in charge in 2001, and their first maps touched off a series of Republican lawsuits that led to major changes in district shapes.
Ten years ago, Democrats configured districts so that they were big enough to elect more than one House member or senator. Court rulings stopped Democrats from drawing districts big enough to fit two legislators and limited the practice of drawing districts that sliced apart counties. Even after all the changes and new requirements, Democrats retained control of the legislature.
The results of this election may give Republicans their chance at the political maps. North Carolina is the rare state where the governor cannot veto redistricting plans, said Tim Storey, a redistricting expert at the National Conference of State Legislatures.
"Do you have Republicans salivating over the prospect of being in charge of redistricting? Absolutely," Storey said. "There's no doubt that they are anxious to exercise that power, just as Democrats did 10 years ago."
States draw new lines after every Census so the districts have about the same number of people in them and meet the constitutional requirement for "one person, one vote."
The state must comply with other constitutional requirements and federal laws, such as the law that seeks to prevent legal barriers that would dilute African-American voting strength. But the U.S. Supreme Court last year struck down the state's practice of crossing county lines to create districts where there are enough minority voters to influence the outcome of elections, but where their voting age populations do not reach 50 percent or more.
Irving Joyner, a law professor at N.C. Central University, does not anticipate a drop in African-American representation because of population growth concentrated in cities, though the recent court decision may affect who has the best chance of being elected in Pender and New Hanover counties.
Congressional districts don't have to meet county-line crossing rules, but the district lines make a difference in whether it favors a Democratic or Republican candidate.
"If Republicans are in charge of the process, it's going to give them a head start and give those U.S. House candidates an edge before the election even starts," Storey said.
Education
Republicans have promised to lift the cap on charter schools within the first 100 days of the session if they win both chambers. Democrats have rebuffed such efforts for years.
Charter schools, which receive public money but are exempt from some state rules and regulations, could experience a boom if the limits are raised. The law now limits such schools to 100.
Hackney said the essential question will be how to pay for all the students flooding community colleges, the state's universities and local public schools. Money for enrollment growth has been more or less automatic, but that could change in a budget crisis.
"The real budget question in education is how to serve all those people in tough budget times," he said. "We found a way to do that time and time before."
Social issues
Taxes, spending and jobs have overshadowed issues such as gay marriage and abortion policy, but the parties have distinctly different views on those questions.
Over Republican objections, Democrats approved an anti-bullying law that specified gay students as potential targets. Republicans also opposed changing the public schools' sex education curriculum to include more information about contraceptives.
Republicans want voters to be able to change the state constitution to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman. GOP members also have pushed in past years for a fetal homicide law, which would allow a suspect to be charged with murder in the death of a fetus.
The election results could usher in a new leading cast in the legislature if Republicans control one or more chambers - and even if they don't.
Much will depend how wide the majorities are. A recent 60-60 split in the state House led to a rare Democrat/Republican co-speakership.
Wins by only a few seats could touch off horse-trading, free-for-alls from day one through the next two years on the most important votes.
