North Carolina, which historically has outpaced the national economy, underperformed the nation for much of the past decade. But conditions are expected to improve this year.
That's one of the major themes of today's Economic Forecast Forum in Research Triangle Park, which brings together some of the state's economic authorities and hundreds of business leaders.
Wells Fargo Securities economist Mark Vitner, in prepared remarks for his talk at the forum, says that though the 2011 outlook has brightened, many consumers and small businesses remain "extremely skeptical" about the economy.
Also according to Vitner:
Congress and President Barack Obama's recent compromises on tax cuts and actions by the Federal Reserve won't produce "lasting and meaningful benefits." Too much of the stimulus is aimed at correcting "cyclical imbalances, but most of the problems plaguing the U.S. and North Carolina economies today are structural and not likely to go away soon."
Policymakers need to find a way to motivate corporate officials into spending and hiring. "Cutting rates and dividends and capital gains helps, but reducing corporate tax rates, providing more certainty about health care and benefit costs ... would undoubtedly do much more."
North Carolina suffers more than most from a nationwide decline in industrial jobs. Manufacturers in the state have eliminated more than 300,000 jobs over the past decade. When technology, tourism and other fields were booming, displaced industrial workers could find work more easily. But growth in those fields has slowed, leaving many unemployed longer.
The annual forum is coordinated by the North Carolina Bankers Association and the N.C. Chamber. About 1,100 business leaders from across the state are expected to attend. Other speakers include Erskine Bowles, former president of the University of North Carolina system and co-chairman of Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility.
Sen. Phil Berger, who will be elected president pro tem of the state Senate when the state legislature convenes Jan. 26, will share his perspective on the economy and likely discuss what the new Republican-controlled legislature plans to do about the state's $3.7 billion budget shortfall.
