The crucial players in this session of the state legislature, we are learning, are the House's Blue Dog Democrats.
Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue may propose budgets. And House Speaker Thom Tillis and Senate leader Phil Berger may lay claim to the Republican mandate of last year's legislative elections.
But as we found out last week, nothing becomes law unless Jim Crawford, a merchant from Oxford, says so. Or unless William Brisson, a tobacco farmer from Dublin, gives it his OK. Or if Dewey Hill, the owner of convenience stores in Whiteville, doesn't agree. And so on.
The Republicans control the legislature, but they fell four votes short of winning a veto-proof majority in the House.
Which means that if Perdue decides to get out her veto stamp, the Republican leadership has to persuade four conservative Democrats to vote with them to override.
Last week they failed to do so and weren't able to override a Perdue veto on a bill that would have had North Carolina join 27 other states in a legal challenge to the federal law overhauling the health care system that Congress passed last year.
This puts the Blue Dog Democrats in the catbird seat for the rest of the session. They can decide what bills become law and what budget can pass.
A more seasoned, savvy House leadership team might have brought some of the conservative Democrats into their coalition from the beginning of the session, providing them with a veto-proof majority.
But the House Republicans seem allergic to coalitions - having spent the last decade condemning Republican Rep. Richard Morgan for entering into a co-speakership deal with Democrat Jim Black. Or perhaps they thought they didn't need the Democrats after their electoral sweep in November.
But coalition politics are how bills become laws.
The Republican strategy last week was to send a lot of e-mail and phone messages into the Blue Dogs' districts saying they were helping Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid destroy jobs if they voted to uphold Perdue's veto. That blunt strategy, not surprisingly, didn't attract a single vote to the Republican cause.
Meanwhile, Perdue, a politically weakened governor, is growing stronger every time she vetoes a bill, helping win back the Democratic base she so desperately needs.
The Blue Dog Democrats are now in a position to deal. If the Republicans don't want to bargain, they will watch their entire legislative program - except for constitutional amendments and redistricting, which are not subject to vetoes - go down to defeat.
If any of the Blue Dogs need a road repaved in their districts or if a constituent needs a job with the state, now would be the time to ask the governor.
And Crawford might remind folks that Oxford, N.C., is one of the few Oxfords in the world that isn't home to a college campus.
