The folks behind the Case-Shiller Index, the closely watched housing indicator that tracks prices in major metro areas, released data this week that quantified what most people realized months ago.
The nation's housing market suffered a double-dip in prices that began in 2010 and has continued at least through this summer.
Here in the Triangle, home prices fell 3.1 percent over the past year, compared with a decline of 5.9 percent for the United States, according to Fiserv, a Wisconsin company that provides information and software to the financial services industry.
Prices here have fallen 7.4 percent over the past three years.
Fiserv predicts that prices will stabilize beginning in mid-2012, thanks to a strengthening economy and the fact that owning a home has now become much more affordable.
This latter point deserves a bit more attention, as it gets at a major impediment to a recovery.
For years now, prospective homebuyers have been told that there has never been a better time to buy a house.
This phrase, despite being basically true, has been repeated so much to little effect that it has become somewhat of a punch line.
The failure of greater affordability to improve demand is striking when you compare it to what's been happening in the rental market.
The average monthly mortgage payment for a median family house is now $700, off 40 percent from its peak in 2006, according to Fiserv.
Meanwhile, the average apartment rent in the Triangle in September was $838, up 2.2 percent from a year ago, according to data from the Triangle Apartment Association and Karnes Research.
"There are still consumer confidence issues," said Trish Hanchette, Raleigh division president for homebuilder Lennar. "As much as we all try to say this is the best time to buy, some people you're not going to get over that fear with them."
Hanchette said that despite such fears, Lennar had its best sales month in October for its new West Raleigh community Inside Wade. The company sold 14 homes there last month and has sold 51 since sales started in June.
Lennar has 26 speculative homes under construction at Inside Wade.
"It's certainly not the numbers from 2006," Hanchette said. "But we're pleased with the numbers that we're getting, given what's going on in the market."
She predicts overall sales in the Triangle will be flat in 2012.
"And I don't mean flat like bad," she added. "I mean we're going to be in the same place. And that's OK."
It's not an accident that many people now talk about the real estate market the same way a therapist would talk to a depressed patient. Although a lack of consumer confidence is hurting all sectors of the U.S. economy, it's particularly acute in the housing market.
The reasons are numerous. Demand for homes, both new and existing, has declined because of the downturn. Fewer people now have the financial wherewithal to buy, and banks continue to contain large amounts of distressed properties on their books.
All these problems are being exacerbated by a fear about what comes next, particularly given what's already occurred.
"There's still a fear factor weighing on the housing market," said Ed Dunnavant, who tracks Triangle housing trends for the research firm Metrostudy.
That fear extends from the consumers up to homebuilders, who are now very selective about where they build. The number of new homes on the market in the Triangle dropped to 1,959 in the third quarter, the lowest level in 17 quarters, according toMetrostudy.
Fiserv is forecasting that prices in the Triangle will rise by 0.9 percent by next summer, a respectable gain given that some other markets are expected to experience yet more double-digit declines.
Given how unreliable previous forecasts have been, such news is unlikely to usher in a wave of optimism.
"The mindset has changed, and that means a shift in consumer behavior," Dunnavant said.
