Barring an injury epidemic, a wave of defections or the return of Larry Drew II to the Tar Heels' locker room, I think North Carolina will win the 2012 NCAA championship.
But should UNC win it?
Since the early 1970s, when a few programs began catching up to UCLA, no team has been good enough to shoulder the "should win" burden.
This North Carolina team has great talent, no doubt about that. There will be times when they look completely unbeatable.
But given today's rules - 3-point arc, shot clock - could the 2011-12 Tar Heels beat the 1983-84 Tar Heels?
Nope again. This group probably would be fortunate to beat the '84 team featuring Michael Jordan, Sam Perkins, Kenny Smith, Matt Doherty, Buzz Peterson, Brad Daugherty, Joe Wolf, Dave Popson and Steve Hale. And the '84 team didn't win the national title. It didn't even reach the NCAA East Regional championship game.
Those Tar Heels were ousted by Indiana - the result of a poor outside shooting performance and the Hoosiers' superior defense.
And if the current team doesn't make it to the Final Four in New Orleans or fails to survive should it get there, odds are it will have fallen victim to a similar scenario - errant perimeter shooting against an imposing defense.
In their final game last season, the Tar Heels were eliminated by Kentucky in the NCAA tournament's East Regional final. The game turned entirely on 3-point shooting - UNC missed 13 of 16, and Kentucky made 12 of 22.
The addition of P.J. Hairston, coupled with the return of Reggie Bullock from a knee injury, should give the current team more perimeter options.
But in a single-elimination tourney, there will never be a fool-proof remedy for a bad shooting game.