RALEIGH -- In this post-recession environment, much is being made about great forces of change - population and demographic shifts, economic drivers, environmental concerns - that will dramatically reshape community-building for the rest of the century. However, as dramatic as this change is, the land-use industry faced circumstances just as daunting in early part of the 20th century.
Seventy-five years ago, on Dec. 14, 1936, the Urban Land Institute was established to research, analyze and encourage responsible patterns for long-term urban growth and to explore what constitutes sound real estate development projects and practices. It was a time of great uncertainty in financial markets, shifting economic growth engines, changing demographics and household composition, and an ongoing influx of immigrants. Cities around the country were trying to recover from the Great Depression, grappling with inner-city neighborhoods in decay as well as new suburbs that would soon face rapid growth.
ULI's role as an objective authority on land-use practices and community-building spanned much of 20th century urban development - from the post-World War II migration to the suburbs to the subsequent revival of urban downtowns in the 1990s and early 2000s. Now, 75 years later and with nearly 30,000 members involved in all aspects of land use, the institute has vastly expanded its reach into markets worldwide. Ours is a business dramatically altered by advances in information technology and economic globalization. But one of ULI's core functions - serving as an information exchange for what works and what doesn't in community building - remains just as relevant now as it was in 1936.
Based on knowledge accumulated over three-quarters of a century, this much is certain: Where we've been in land use is not where we are headed. Not in the Triangle, and not anywhere else. These are just some of the reasons why:
The U.S. population will grow by an additional 150 million by 2050.
The U.S. has become an urban nation, with the majority of its residents living in urban areas that have evolved into multiple nodes of employment, housing and recreation.
The first wave of baby boomers is hitting 65 - most will shun retirement and stay in the workforce, either by necessity or choice. Many, if healthy now, could still be alive in 40 years.
Generation Y (the largest, most environmentally conscious and most tech-savvy generation in history) has started to enter the housing market and workforce.
Household size is shrinking, due to more people living alone, delaying marriage and childbirth, and having fewer children.
Technology is reshaping work space - office tenants will decrease space per employee, and new office environments will need to promote interaction and dialogue, with offices serving more as a meeting space than a work space.
The U.S. transportation infrastructure system, once a world leader due to the new interstate highway system, is now falling behind Asia and Europe in terms of transportation investments.
Concerns over climate change have resulted in an increasing number of government mandates aimed at limiting carbon emissions from vehicles and buildings.
The worst economic downturn since the Great Depression has 1) thrown credit markets into prolonged turmoil; and 2) left many markets with unprecedented housing foreclosures, causing a decline in the homeownership rate and general disillusionment with homeownership as the American Dream.
The challenge for ULI Triangle - and all stakeholders in our region - is to figure out what these factors mean for future development in our city. How much of the anticipated population growth for the U.S. will be happening in our region? Is the Triangle drawing talented workers, including young professionals as well as baby boomers starting their "encore" careers? Do we have an adequate supply of housing that is both affordable and close to jobs?
Is the Triangle leveraging its public space to catalyze private investment? Are we maximizing the economic development potential of anchor institutions such as higher education and medical facilities, alternative energy-related industries, and arts and culture facilities? And how can future development help position the Triangle region as progressive and innovative for the 21st century?
What won't work: piecemeal, haphazard, poorly connected, sprawling development. Currently, residents in the outer suburbs spend more than 45 percent of their income on housing and transportation alone. In May, Forbes Magazine ranked the Triangle as the biggest gas-guzzling metropolitan area of the country, with the average household driving 21,800 miles per year. Most households have seen their auto gas costs double, even quadruple, since 2000. This is simply not a sustainable growth model.
What will work: Building in a way that conserves land and energy, de-emphasizes auto dependency, and enhances the natural environment. This means less new construction and greater emphasis on reusing and adapting existing space to better connect housing with employment, shopping, education and recreation.
Land development is, by nature, a forward-looking enterprise. What we start now will be part of the Triangle tomorrow. And whether we've learned from the past will be measured by how much of today's work is still relevant, appealing and worth preserving in 75 more years.
Jon E. Wilson is chairman of the Urban Land Institute/Triangle.
