DURHAM -- Economists are predicting a sluggish economic recovery for North Carolina and nation in 2012, toning down their forecasts after several years of overly optimistic predictions that widely missed their mark.
Still, any scrap of positive news was enough for Gov. Bev Perdue. Speaking at an annual economic conference in Durham, she said it's the best news she's heard in years.
"For the first time since I've been governor," Perdue declared, "I feel very hopeful."
But in the area most people care about - the job market - the experts have a grim outlook.
Economists and business executives who offered their annual prognostications at the Economic Forecast Forum don't expect dramatic improvements in the state unemployment rate this year.
The yearly economic forecast confab is sponsored by the N.C. Bankers Association and the N.C. Chamber.
Despite the small improvement, some business leaders emphasized the positives.
That's called leadership, suggested another speaker, Bob Ingram, a general partner at Hatteras Venture Partners and the former CEO of pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline.
Ingram said leadership is about showing what could be, not what is, and motivating others to improve.
"If we stress the negatives, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy," Ingram said.
Here's what was said:
On the jobs picture: Harry Davis, an economist at Appalachian State University, said the state will add 40,000 jobs this year. "High unemployment will persist for a long time," Davis said. "Most economists think we'll live with it for quite some time."
On the state's economic growth: The state will not see the same level of growth as the nation because it still relies heavily on manufacturing, a weak sector. "Everything is moving in the right direction," Davis said. "It's just moving slower than we're used to."
About long-term unemployment: "After you've been unemployed for a year, you're just about unemployable," Davis said. Many unemployed people have the wrong skills for the jobs that are being created in technology and other fields, he said. The only way to change that is by re-training workers.
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Here are some of the projections Harry Davis, an economist at Appalachian State University, made at Tuesday's Economic Forecast Forum, along with the most current data:
Prediction: U.S. jobless rate at end of 2012 will be 8 percent.
Current: U.S. jobless rate in November 2011 was 8.6 percent.
Prediction: N.C. jobless rate at end of 2012 will be 9.3 percent.
Current: N.C. jobless rate in November 2011 was 10 percent.
Prediction: U.S. economic growth for 2012 will be 2.25 percent; N.C. economic growth for 2012 will be 2 percent.
Current: U.S. economic growth in the first three quarters of 2011 was 1.25 percent; Davis did not have corresponding data for the state.
Prediction: N.C. will gain about 40,000 jobs in 2012.
Current: N.C. has gained about 21,000 jobs in the first 11 months of 2011.
Staff writer John Murawski
