Triangle home sales declined 6 percent last year, as the market returned to a level of activity not seen since 2002.
The decline came despite an uptick in sales toward the end of the year. There were 3,660 homes sold in Durham, Johnston, Orange and Wake counties in the fourth quarter, up 10 percent from the same period in 2010, Triangle Multiple Listing Services data show.
Pending sales were up 12 percent for the quarter while showings were down 4 percent. The average price of the homes that sold in the quarter was $230,000, down 6 percent.
It was difficult to gauge the overall health of the market for much of 2011 because of the ongoing influence of the federal homebuyer tax credits. The credits expired at the end of June 2010, but sales were depressed for about six months afterward.
That led to wider than normal swings in the comparisons of 2011 sales activity to the same period in 2010. Those swings should lessen in 2012, said Stacey Anfindsen, a Cary appraiser who analyzes MLS data for area real-estate agents.
"We should be back to the little percentage changes between zero and 5 percent," he said. "I don't foresee anything double-digit in percentage changes from a closing standpoint."
The wildcard, Anfindsen said, is what happens in 2012 with the number of existing homes on the market. That number has plummeted in recent months, falling 35 percent between April and December.
Meanwhile, the number of new homes on the market has continued to fall, and is now about 60 percent off its peak in 2008.
If both those trends continue, it will help stabilize housing prices as the ratio of buyers and sellers moves closer to equilibrium. The Triangle now has a six-month supply of housing based on the current pace of sales.
"That should indicate stable housing prices," Anfindsen said.
But there are concerns that banks will eventually start shedding the distressed real estate they've acquired in recent years, causing a wave of foreclosures to come on the market.
"What are the banks holding? We really can't wrap our arms around that too much," said Phyllis Brookshire, a senior vice president with Allen Tate Real Estate.
Brookshire said the market has been making gradual improvement in recent months.
"We think 2012 is probably not going to look a lot different from 2011, but we think it's going to be ahead of 2011," she said.
