Amid all the in-person interviews with prospects and evaluations of 40-yard dash times at next week's NFL scouting combine, the Carolina Panthers' draft outlook could change depending on the flip of a coin.
A coin flip on Feb. 24 at the combine in Indianapolis will determine whether the Panthers get the 8th or 9th pick. Carolina and Miami finished with 6-10 records and with an identical strength-of-schedule (.504) percentage - the first tie-breaker used by the league in determining draft order.
At least one prominent draft analyst believes the difference between 8 and 9 is substantial.
"I think the first seven or eight picks are pretty solid, then after that there are some questions," NFL Network's Mike Mayock said Wednesday during a conference call with reporters. "So they're right on the cusp of that with that coin flip."
Mayock - like ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. - believes the Panthers could take LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers with their first pick. The Panthers drafted a pair of defensive tackles last year but had trouble getting consistent penetration and an interior pass rush in 2011.
Brockers did not start for LSU until last season as a redshirt sophomore. He finished with 54 tackles, including 10 for loss, and added an interception and three pass breakups.
The 6-5, 306-pounder will be asked often in Indy whether he is more than a one-year wonder - the same question posed to Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley last year before Detroit drafted him 13th overall.
"I think he's a potential top-10 pick, and I think he's a logical guy who could play even outside if you needed him to," Mayock said of Brockers. "He's a really explosive, 6-foot-5, 300-pound defensive tackle. So I think Brockers is real logical for (the Panthers) right there."
Besides defensive line help, the Panthers could be in the market for a cornerback after Captain Munnerlyn struggled in his first season as a full-time starter. According to Pro Football Focus, quarterbacks completed 73.8 percent of their passes throwing toward Munnerlyn last season - the worst percentage of any NFL corner.
With LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne expected to be off the board when the Panthers pick, Mayock said Carolina would be taking the second- or third-best corner. Mayock said that likely would be Alabama junior Dre Kirkpatrick, a 6-3, 192-pounder whom most analysts believe has better run-support skills than shut-down, coverage ability.
"He's big and he's long. I'm not sure what he's going to run (in the 40). Some people might even think he could convert to safety down the road," Mayock said. "He's a kid I really like a lot, but is that too high for him? Because sitting there at 8 or 9, you've got to get the best football player on the board."
The Panthers used the No. 1 overall pick last year on quarterback Cam Newton, who broke Peyton Manning's rookie passing record and finished with more rushing touchdowns (14) than any quarterback in league history.
Mayock praised Newton for throwing at last year's combine while Blaine Gabbert waited for his pro day. Though Mayock had Gabbert ranked ahead of Newton for much of the pre-draft process, he said Newton had a "mind-boggling" rookie season.
Despite Newton's success, Mayock said he would probably take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck ahead of Newton if they were in the same draft.
Mayock, who will lead the NFL Network's combine coverage beginning Feb. 23, had interesting takes on a couple of prospects from the Carolinas. Mayock said:
South Carolina wideout Alshon Jeffery is not among his top four wideouts and could fall on draft boards if he does not run a 4.5 or better in the 40.
"If you start seeing 4.6, 4.65, it's going to be a problem," Mayock said of the 6-4, 229-pound Jeffery, whose weight could be an issue.
He is not a fan of North Carolina defensive end and top-10 prospect Quinton Coples, who did not play well until late last season.
"He looks the part. He's pretty. He's got all kinds of ability and he's going to remind a lot of people of Julius Peppers," Mayock said. "That all sounds pretty good. But I'd be scared to death. He did not play well or hard as a senior."
