Two weeks still remain in high school football’s regular season and the official attendance numbers that will be used to determine how the schools will be subdivided are not yet available, but the season is far enough along to get a feel for what the N.C. Athletic Association playoffs will look like in the 4A division.
The NCHSAA receives its official average daily memberships (ADMs) later this month, but the projections used the ADM figures that were used for the NCHSAA realignment last spring.
Here are the 64 4A qualifying teams (organized by what their record would be if the playoffs started today and they could drop endowment games). Some teams are tied for an automatic berth, but this projection gave the nod to teams who have better overall records (like Knightdale ahead of Clayton) or a higher regional ranking (like Hillside ahead of Northern Durham, etc).
Asterisks indicate teams that have an 11-game regular season and will drop either a win or a loss and be seeded on a 10-game basis.
Based on ADMs used for realignment last spring, Hoke County and Heritage are two of the smaller 4AA teams in this projection while Scotland, Rocky River and Pfafftown Reagan are the three largest 4A teams.
Remember, these are projections based on current records. Most teams still have two games left.
(based on current records)
1-Garner* (or Leesville or Middle Creek) vs 8-Athens Drive; 2-Leesville Road (or Garner or Middle Creek) vs 7-Wilmington Laney; 3-Middle Creek (or Leesville or Garner) vs 6-Heritage; 4-Wakefield* vs 5-WF-Rolesville*
1-Fayetteville Britt vs 8-Green Hope; 2-Fuquay-Varina (or Pinecrest) vs 7-Holly Springs; 3-Pinecrest (or Fuquay-Varina) vs 6-Cary; 4-Hoke County* vs 5-Lumberton
1-Richmond (or East Forsyth, Matthews Butler) vs 8-West Forsyth; 2-East Forsyth* (or Richmond, Butler) vs 7-Charlotte Vance; 3-Butler (or East Forsyth, Richmond) vs 6-Greensboro Page; 4-Charlotte Independence vs 5-Northwest Guilford
1-South Caldwell* (or MC) vs 8-Lake Norman; 2-Mallard Creek (or S. Caldwell) vs 7-Charlotte Kell; 3-Olympic vs 6-Myers Park; 4-Hough vs 5-West Mecklenburg
1-New Bern vs 8-Southeast Raleigh; 2-New Hanover vs 7-Southern Durham; 3-Knightdale vs 6-Clayton (or Pine Forest); 4-Hoggard vs 5-Pine Forest* (or Clayton)
1-Fayetteville Smith vs 8-East Chapel Hill; 2-Hillside vs 7-Fayetteville Sanford (or SE Guilford); 3-Dudley vs 6-Southeast Guilford (Fayetteville Sanford); 4-Lee County vs 5-Northern Durham
1-North Davidson* vs 8-Mt Tabor; 2-Davie County vs 7-Ragsdale; 3-Scotland vs 6-Western Guilford; 4-Reagan (or High Point Central) vs 5-High Point Central (or Reagan)
1-Asheville Roberson vs 8-Watagua; 2-Sun Valley vs 7-McDowell County; 3-Porter Ridge vs 6-Rocky River; 4-Asheville Reynolds vs 5-Alexander Central