Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg at Roll Call moved the North Carolina race from “tossup” to “tilts Democrat” on Tuesday.
It’s only a slight move, but reflects changes in the race, Rothenberg wrote in a Roll Call column. He noted that Hagan’s poll numbers were down at the end of the year but have “recovered somewhat,” giving her a “modest but clear lead at this point.” She also has a financial advantage, he noted.
Hagan’s second quarter earnings last week came in at $3.6 million, compared to Tillis’ $1.6 million in the same period.
Rothenberg went on to note that Tillis, the House speaker, has poor poll numbers and could be hurt by policymaking decisions of the “extremely controversial” General Assembly.
North Carolina was competitive for President Barack Obama – he won it narrowly in 2008 and lost it narrowly in 2012 – so the president “isn’t as much of a drag” in the Tar Heel State as he is in Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia, Rothenberg added. Democrats are trying to win those states as well this year. Republicans need to gain six seats to take away control of the Senate.