There is some method to sorting out the madness. But, first, let's be clear about the task of filling out your NCAA bracket, an annual rite in offices and neighborhoods across the country: Elaborate computer programs, seeding formulas, deep statistical study and other such sophisticated methods have failed to predict these games correctly.

Still, there are some things that can help secure office pool glory.

1. Check the lines.

This first one is what we'll reveal as our Super Secret Insider Tip -- because it has been so successful in sorting out those hard-to-call, early-round games pitting the No. 8 seed vs. the No. 9 seed, the 10 vs. 7 and the 11 vs. 6.

Check the betting lines, which represent the wisdom of people in Las Vegas who have real money on the outcome. The lines are published in The News & Observer.

The line will tell you which of those games is thought to be much closer than the rest.

Last year, Michigan State and Xavier were No. 9 seeds -- and both were favored by bettors to win. Sure enough, both pulled the "upsets." Winthrop defeated Notre Dame but was only a four-point underdog going in.

Follow the betting lines, and you may spot potential upsets.

2. Don't go upset-crazy.

The NCAA has done a pretty good job of seeding the teams. The higher-seeded team wins 75 percent of the first-round games, on average -- that's about two upsets in each region.

Historically, though, No. 9 seeds have beaten No. 8 seeds -- 50 to 42 since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Study those.

Also, no No. 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1 seed, and only four No. 15 seeds have won a game.

3. Don't overdo No. 1s.

Don't pick all the No. 1 seeds to make the Final Four. It has not happened yet, so don't plan for it.

Typically, only two No. 1 seeds make it to the Final Four, as happened last year.

Deciding which No. 1s will falter is up to you. Of course, you could play it safe and pick them all -- hoping other folks in your pool mess it up. (Hint, hint.)

4. Avoid Cinderella.

Be careful about Cinderella stories. The run by No. 11 George Mason to the Final Four in 2006 was an anomaly.

Typically, the Final Four is made up of a couple No. 1s and a No. 2 or No. 3. Focus on them.

Only two teams with a double-digit seeding have made it to the Final Four: George Mason in 2006 and LSU in 1986.

5. Beware fifth seeds.

Eliminate the No. 5 seeds before the Final Four. Only five have made it there. No. 4 seeds have gone that far 14 times, and sixth seeds have made it 12 times.

6. Check itineraries.

Study where the games are. As a report in Sunday's N&O showed, travel distance matters.

The data is unequivocal: The closer a team is playing to its campus, the likelier it is to win. Especially since the NCAA instituted a travel change six years ago to keep the higher seeds closer to home.

North Carolina will start out in Raleigh and then would play in Charlotte. UCLA will start in Anaheim, Calif., and Memphis in Little Rock, Ark. Texas could play in Houston for a trip to the Final Four. If Arizona can get past West Virginia and Duke, the Wildcats would be in Phoenix.

7. Be careful of Indiana.

Indiana schools tend to be seeded favorably, with all four -- Notre Dame, Indiana, Butler and Purdue -- higher than their first-round opponents this year. But Indiana schools are 32-39 in the past 12 years. That's a lot of win-one, lose-one performances.

8. Love the big leagues.

Go with a winner from a top conference -- the mid-majors can surprise early, but they don't win it all. That means you should be careful with the Drakes and Butlers of the world.

9. Exploit fans' bias.

If a lot of Tar Heels fans are playing in your pool, they'll tend to have UNC going all the way no matter what (folks who picked Georgetown over UNC last year scored big, for example). Those same people would also undershoot with Duke. Think about going against the grain with those teams.

Try to keep the big picture in mind -- though this year it undoubtedly includes the Heels and the Blue Devils.

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