Here's the rundown of nominations in key categories -- along with Craig D. Lindsey's take on who should win -- and who will win. For elaboration, go to blogs.newsobserver.com/unclecrizzle.

PICTURE "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen."

Should win: "Letters From Iwo Jima."

Will win: "Babel."

ACTOR Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"; Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"; Peter O'Toole, "Venus"; Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"; Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland."

Should win: Peter O'Toole, "Venus."

Will win: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland."

ACTRESS Penelope Cruz, "Volver"; Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"; Helen Mirren, "The Queen"; Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"; Kate Winslet, "Little Children."

Should win: Helen Mirren, "The Queen."

Will win: Helen Mirren, "The Queen."

SUPPORTING ACTOR Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"; Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond"; Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"; Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed."

Should win: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls."

Will win: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls."

SUPPORTING ACTRESS Adriana Barraza, "Babel"; Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"; Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"; Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"; Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel."

Should win: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls."

Will win: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls."

DIRECTOR Alejandro Gonzalez Inarr'tu, "Babel"; Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"; Clint Eastwood, "Letters From Iwo Jima"; Stephen Frears, "The Queen"; Paul Greengrass, "United 93."

Should win: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed."

Will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarr'tu, "Babel."