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The power of Florida's argument is how it braids together two seemingly disparate elements: creativity and economic growth. In fact, they are not so closely entwined, according to Emil Malizia, chairman of the Department of City & Regional Planning at UNC-Chapel Hill.

In a wide-ranging study that will be published next spring, Malizia and four other researchers compared how well two sets of indicators predicted economic performance in 263 metropolitan areas across the United States.

One set was Florida's, which focuses on the percentage of high-tech companies, the number of artistically creative and foreign-born people, and the Gay Index. The other set used more traditional measures, such as education levels, the performance of manufacturing concerns and entrepreneurs, and earnings from business services.

"The general conclusion was that the traditional measures did a better, if still imperfect, job of predicting growth," Malizia said in a phone conversation. "Florida's ideas may sound good, but there's very little science behind them."

In a pivotal finding, Malizia and his collaborators observed that the creative class is more a reflection than an engine of economic health: Their numbers correlated with a growth in income but not in jobs.

There are many good reasons for building vibrant entertainment districts and lush greenways while nurturing the arts. "But if communities do that instead of helping retrain displaced workers or using traditional methods for attracting new businesses," Mailizia said, "they probably won't enjoy the benefits promises."

Malizia noted one other flaw in Florida's argument: His overly broad definition of the creative class. Encompassing about 30 percent of the work force, it includes middle management at, say, Cisco Systems, as well as the programmers who design its breakthrough products.

"Essentially, he uses one aspect of the creative class -- the bohemians, artists and goofy professors like me -- as a stand-in for a much broader population whose aspirations and tastes may be more middle of the road," Malizia said.

Life would be so much easier if cities only had to satisfy the specific demands of a particular group -- especially if that posse included me!

But that's not the world we live in. Instead, city planners and concerned citizens must weigh complex forces and competing demands as they imagine Raleigh's future.

As the search for Raleigh's soul continues, at least we know this much: It's a many splendored thing.

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