Plotting the color peaks

Most fall color prognosticators say the odds of the United States finding Osama bin Laden are better than yours for finding good color in the North Carolina mountains this fall. Gary Walker believes it depends on which cave you look in.

Or rather, which cove.

"I don't think it's going to be as terrible as most people are predicting," says Walker, a biology professor at Appalachian State University in Boone.

Walker's view is a bit contrarian, given the severe drought plaguing the state. Hot, dry summer weather stresses trees, causing them to put more energy into survival. Come fall, they often drop their leaves before the leaves turn color.

But all it takes to salvage the color is an early frost followed by warm, sunny days. "The earlier we have frosts, the better," Walker says.

The drab forecasts assume that all the mountains have been dry. In fact, Walker says, the mountains north of Boone have had pretty good rainfall.

"Certainly the Parkway on this end should be nice," he says. Mount Jefferson and Elk Knob state natural areas and Three Tops Mountain could be good options as well.

Even in drought-stricken areas you should find some good color. North Carolina's mountains are famous for their microclimates. In the Asheville area, for instance, average annual precipitation is 37 inches. Yet 50 miles south of Asheville, in the state's southwestern mountains, average rainfall exceeds 90 inches.

You can even find pockets of color within drought-stricken areas. "The color is going to be better in coves and along streams," Walker says. Dry ridges, south-facing slopes and higher elevations are good bets, too.

Another thing: The leaves will turn color earlier this year, Walker says. To help you react with SWAT-team swiftness, check the Asheville Convention & Visitor's Bureau-sponsored site www.fallinthemountains.com, or call (800) 921-9698. You'll find the long-standing fall foliage report, updated weekly by 20 deputized color enthusiasts stationed throughout the high country. The site has a new Asheville Color Hunter blog, where any leaf peeper can file a more timely report.

For statewide information, the N.C. Division of Tourism, Film and Sports Development will post its leaf watchers' reports at www.visitnc.com starting Sept. 26. For phone reports, call (866) 653-2837.

"The color may be fairly spectacular," Walker says. "But it won't last as long."