In Washington, on the campaign trail and in Baghdad, there has been talk for months about cutting the number of U.S. troops in Iraq. For North Carolina-based troops, though, 2009 is shaping up as another big year there -- maybe the biggest since the war began in 2003.

The Pentagon formally announced last week that three more major units from the state are to be sent to Iraq in 2009 -- two combat brigade teams from the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg and the headquarters unit of the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force at Camp Lejeune.

That makes a total of seven major units and more than 25,000 troops from North Carolina scheduled to be in Iraq at some point in the coming year.

Troops in smaller reserve and active duty units will almost certainly deploy during the year, too, including hundreds from the hard-worked Special Operations units at Bragg and Lejeune.

There are now about 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has campaigned on a plan to begin removing most combat units within 16 months of taking office. His Republican opponent, John McCain, has also talked of removing troops, though he has been more reluctant to set a timetable, saying that to do so would help the enemy.

Iraqi leaders, too, have called for planned troop reductions in negotiations with the United States, and President Bush agreed to a "general time horizon" for withdrawing them.

But for troops deploying from North Carolina -- particularly those headed for Iraq early in the year -- a reprieve is unlikely.

"Almost regardless of who gets into office, probably nothing will change for deployments in the first six months of the year, except that some of the forces could be shifted and be sent to Afghanistan rather than Iraq," said Daniel Goure, a national security expert with the Lexington Institute, a Libertarian-leaning think tank in Arlington, Va.

Later in the year, Goure said, some of the units that are scheduled to deploy could fall off the list, but that depends not only on who is elected but also on conditions in Iraq. A troop drawdown could slow or stop if security in Iraq backslides, or if something else, such as worsening relations with Iran, aggravates the situation, he said.

Among the units least likely to see its deployment plans change no matter what happens is the N.C. National Guard's 30th Brigade Combat Team. The 3,800 citizen soldiers of the 30th Brigade Combat are scheduled to deploy early in the new year, and a Guard spokesman in Raleigh said Friday that it hadn't heard anything about a change of plans.

The 30th's deployment will be a milestone not just for the Guard but for the country: It could be the first National Guard brigade sent to Iraq twice.

It already made history once in Iraq, when it deployed in February 2004 for a yearlong tour northwest of Baghdad. It was the first National Guard brigade sent into battle since the Korean War.

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