News & Observer | newsobserver.com | The sign: Overconfidence Crossing

Columns by Jim Jenkins

Published: Oct 02, 2008 12:30 AM
Modified: Oct 02, 2008 02:42 AM

The sign: Overconfidence Crossing

 

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Word is that Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska, has these days been in the warmer climes of Arizona, in "debate camp."

It's very intense, with Palin getting a crash course in foreign and domestic policy from Sen. John McCain's advisers. They're hoping that Palin, a newcomer to the national stage, makes it through tonight's debate against Delaware Democratic Sen. Joe Biden, the veep choice of Barack Obama, without ... well, without saying Herbert Hoover was her favorite president or that she wants to attack the Rooskies on Inauguration Day.

These are tough times for Palin. While she's proved to be the darling of the most conservative elements of the Republican Party -- she's said to have the Bush-like "one of us" connection with voters -- she's had troubles. A couple of national television interviews haven't gone well, she's been devastatingly mocked on "Saturday Night Live" and now there's even whispering out there that some Republicans want her bounced from the ticket.

Plus, there still is some grumbling that Palin was a fallback choice for Republican nominee McCain. He reportedly wanted Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, but Lieberman did not score well on the written exam given him by McCain's strategists. On one question, for example, Lieberman answered "round" when asked the shape of the Earth. Embarrassing.

So now the governor, untested in this kind of forum and little traveled (relative to national pols) outside her home state, finds herself tonight in debate with the chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a veteran of more than 35 years in the Congress. Democrats are almost beside themselves figuring that Biden, a brilliant and loquacious fellow to be sure, will put the election in the bank. Palin, some Democrats believe, will after the debate feel she's en route back to Anchorage in a sled led by basset hounds.

They'd be wise, however, to heed the words: Not so fast. (And we're not talking about the basset hounds.)

For all of the fun poked at Palin about the coaching, it must be said that for the past couple of days, Biden hasn't exactly been sitting 'round the steam room at the Y. He's being coached every bit as much as the governor -- tough questions, mock debates opposite all the Harvard Law types his consultants can round up.

For one thing, Biden is sort of like the kid (this isn't an original thought) who would remind the teacher as the bell rang that she forgot to hand out the homework assignment. He's long been known to give a 40-pound answer for a 20-pound sack. And his sometimes abrasive and direct style can be effective in a Senate floor debate, and is fun to watch, but it might not play too well opposite the mother of five. (And surely the Democrats know that "Saturday Night Live" isn't exactly the voice of middle America.)

So for those Democrats who are giddy with anticipation, we offer two words. Actually, two words and a conjunction: David and Goliath. OK, now we offer two more words: Ronald Reagan. Remember that Jimmy Carter, cursed by his own management shortcomings and the Iranian hostage crisis, was still viewed as a very smart fellow, certainly a match and then some for the Gipper in 1980. But in debate, Ronald Reagan more than held his own.

And let us not forget the vice presidential debate in 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman, which could be summed up thusly: "Joe, you're a heckuva guy." "No, Dick, you are a heckuva guy."

Most people can't remember more than that from any vice presidential debate, or even when vice presidential debates began. For that matter, the names of vice presidential candidates themselves tend to fall from memory about as quickly as the telephone number you had before you moved last time.

All this to say that most vice presidential debates are underwhelming, and even this year, when the event has been hyped as if it were some kind of political Super Bowl, it's probably not going to make much difference in the election and will be diluted in importance even on the cheerleading cable networks (Fox for the Republicans, MSNBC for the Democrats) by this relatively important task of avoiding another Great Depression.

Both sides can probably hold the champagne. And viewers, even you political junkies out there, bring the blood pressure cuffs out if you wish. But you won't need them.

Deputy editorial page editor Jim Jenkins can be reached at 829-4513 or at jjenkins@newsobserver.com.

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