For 40 years, North Carolina has been a reliably red state when it comes to presidential politics. But the matchup between Barack Obama and John McCain offers some intriguing differences from past elections.

McCain, an Arizona senator, is the sort of mainstream, seasoned, conservative Republican candidate who has run well in North Carolina -- from Richard Nixon to George W. Bush.

But Obama, the Democratic nominee, has a chance of being competitive in North Carolina, according to several analysts and political strategists.

The Illinois senator starts the fall race with advantages that no recent Democratic presidential candidate has had in North Carolina. Having campaigned extensively across the state, Obama has built a powerful grass-roots organization here, with about 15,000 volunteers, and has generated intense interest among blacks and young voters.

Moreover, there is a Democratic tide running in the country because of dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, President Bush's unpopularity and a troubled economy.

Closest since '92?

"I think it's going to be the closest presidential race since 1992, when Bush and Clinton had a nail-biter," said Ed Turlington, a Raleigh lawyer and veteran of several presidential campaigns. He was referring to the first President Bush, who barely carried North Carolina over Bill Clinton.

"I think Obama has excited North Carolinians in a way that I haven't seen since Carter ran in 1976," Turlington said.

Polls are not particularly meaningful this early. But one recent survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm in Raleigh, showed McCain with a 43-40 lead over Obama in North Carolina.

Still, Obama, a one-term senator of African descent with an ethnic name, faces major challenges. In a socially conservative, pro-military state, Obama may not be an easy sell with tradition-minded voters. That was evident in the state's Democratic primary, when Obama struggled to win the votes of older, rural whites.

There is also a history here of gifted black candidates doing well in a Democratic primary but losing in the general election -- most notably former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt's unsuccessful challenges in 1990 and 1996 against Republican U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms.

Some Republicans doubt Obama will make a major effort in North Carolina in the fall.

"I find it hard to believe that the average North Carolinian will buy into Obama's philosophy and policies," said Marc Rotterman, a Republican consultant based in Raleigh.

McCain's military background will likely play well in North Carolina. And while McCain's more moderate conservatism might not gladden the hearts of Helms-style Republicans, he could do well in the state's burgeoning suburbs.

An oft-ignored state

In past elections, North Carolina has largely been ignored by presidential candidates in the general election -- with Republicans taking the state for granted and Democrats writing it off. That was even true, for the most part, in 2004, when Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry chose North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as his running mate.

During this year's primary, Obama said he would take a serious look at making a major general election effort in North Carolina.

Obama has said he would like to broaden the national playing field.

Kerry Haynie, a political science professor at Duke University, said upper South states such as Virginia and North Carolina would be likely choices for Obama. Plus, North Carolina has one of the strongest Democratic parties in the South, with 16 consecutive years of Democratic governors.

A strong Obama candidacy could help Democrats such as gubernatorial hopeful Beverly Perdue and U.S. Senate candidate Kay Hagan, who polls suggest are in tight contests with their Republican opponents, Pat McCrory and Elizabeth Dole. The opposite could also be true.

But five months before the general election, a close contest looks like a good bet.

"There is a lot of evidence that this should be a good Democratic year," said Steven Greene, a political science professor at N.C. State University. "And a good Democratic year makes North Carolina competitive."