Predictions difficult in election year

DES MOINES, IOWA -- It may be a fool's errand to try to predict what will happen in this unsettled political year. Who could have guessed three months ago that the two winners in the Iowa caucuses would be Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee?

But it's no fun sitting on the sidelines. And besides, this is my 15th year of making fearless forecasts in politics.

These predictions do not reflect my personal preferences. This is just my best guess today -- and I may change my mind tomorrow -- about what I think will happen in politics this year.

Here are eight predictions for 2008:

1. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton may be staggering after her third-place finish in Iowa, but she will emerge from a long, bruising primary fight as the Democratic presidential nominee. Obama's inexperience will eventually cost him. North Carolina's own John Edwards suffered a fatal blow when he finished a distant second in Iowa. Clinton will choose Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh as her vice presidential running mate, opting for a safe Midwesterner.

2. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, will end up on the GOP ticket as the vice presidential nominee. And the GOP presidential nominee will be Rudy Giuliani. No, cross that out. Make that Mitt Romney. No, make that Arizona Sen. John McCain.

3. In the general election, Clinton will have a difficult time expanding the Democratic base, while Giuliani -- whoops, I mean McCain -- will pick up enough blue states to win the White House. The Democrats are left asking: How in the world did we lose an election when the Republicans were saddled with an unpopular war and an unpopular president?

4. North Carolina voters favor Giuliani -- I mean McCain --over Clinton, thereby helping Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole defeat Democrat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race. Hagan defeats Jim Neal in the Democratic Senate primary.

5. Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue turns back a stiff challenge from State Treasurer Richard Moore in the Democratic primary for governor. Moore is a strong candidate, but the gender issue is a powerful one.

6. State Sen. Fred Smith captures the GOP nomination for governor. Bill Graham's campaign is stumbling, Bob Orr lacks money, and Pat McCrory has waited too late to mount a successful campaign.

7. Perdue ekes out a victory over Smith in a race made very close by Clinton's unpopularity in the state and by a bruising primary. Democrats lengthen their lease on the governor's mansion to 20 years.

8. Incumbents rule in congressional races. Democrat Heath Shuler and Republicans Robin Hayes and Walter Jones, all incumbents, survive tough challenges.

If you don't like my predictions, don't worry. I'm probably wrong. Last year, I got four of seven predictions wrong. That was probably my worst year ever.

I correctly predicted that Joe Hackney would be the new House speaker but guessed wrong that Edwards would emerge as the leading anti-Hillary candidate.