Legislative districts swing left and right

Legislative districts swing left and right

As legislative candidates dive into or contemplate campaigns, some veterans will notice that the makeup of their districts have changed since the last election.

Voters move in and out, and newcomers fill the fresh crops of subdivisions. All that movement and growth mean a shift in the political leanings of many legislative districts.

For example, districts that just two years ago favored either Democratic or Republican candidates are now classified as swing districts by NCFREE, a business-funded group that monitors legislative elections.

Swing districts in the Senate have doubled from four to eight since the last election, according to NCFREE. The House also has four more swing districts, for a total of 18.

The group's Senate analysis found 21 strong or "leaning" Democratic districts and 21 strong or "leaning" Republican districts.

The party breakdown is close on the House side, too, though there are five more strong House Republican districts than strong Democratic districts. The House has 16 districts that lean Democratic and 11 that lean Republican.

"The playing field is as level as it has ever been," said John Davis, executive director of NCFREE.

Party affiliation of voters is one of the main factors the legislature considers when it divides the state into new House and Senate districts each decade. But the districts are always changing, and Davis' association measures the changes for every legislative election.

Democrats have been able to maintain their advantage in the legislature because they raise more money, Davis said. Democrats use their money to compete in the swing districts and win a few that lean Republican. Democrats have a 29-21 majority in the Senate and a 63-57 majority in the House.

"You don't know from cycle to cycle whether Democrats will be able to continue that advantage," Davis said.

Rep. Russell Capps, a six-term Republican from Raleigh, is a legislator whose district has moved from leaning Republican last year into the swing district category.

Capps said he doesn't think it's going to be easy for a Democrat to win.

Ty Harrell, a Democrat who has filed to run in the district, said the changes are encouraging.

"I'm elated that the district is now in a situation where it's a tossup, and it's going to be a matter of getting my message out to the right folks," he said.

Districts represented by Rep. Jennifer Weiss, a Cary Democrat; Rep. Nelson Dollar, a Cary Republican; Rep. Leo Daughtry, a Smithfield Republican; and Rep. Grier Martin, a Raleigh Democrat, have shifted toward greater Democratic preference since the last election. Weiss' district moved from leaning to strong Democratic. Dollar and Daughtry's districts moved from leaning Republican to swing, and Martin's district moved from swing to leaning Democratic.

Most of the Triangle's Senate districts have stayed the same, though two are tipping toward greater Democratic preference. The analysis says that Sen. Neal Hunt, a Raleigh Republican, is now in a swing district. When he ran last year, the district was classified as leaning Republican. Sen. Janet Cowell's district was classified as a leaning Democratic district for the last election. The first-term Democrat is now sitting in a strong Democratic district.

Edwards to share life story

Elizabeth Edwards, the wife of former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, has lined up a publisher for her memoirs.

Broadway Books, a division of Random House, has acquired the North American, audio, serial and book club rights for Edwards' memoirs for an unspecified amount of money.

Edwards, who underwent breast cancer treatment earlier this year, is writing a book centered on the value of community in her life -- from growing up in a Navy family to dealing with the death of her teenage son in an automobile accident and her fight to regain her health.

Robert Barnett, a Washington lawyer who negotiated the book deal, said 12 publishers bid on the rights to her memoirs.

"During the 2004 campaign, when people on a national basis got to see and know Mrs. Edwards, there was great affection and respect for her," Barnett said. "People saw her as real and smart and caring and someone they related to."

The book, which does not yet have a title, is expected to be published sometime in 2006, Barnett said.

Her husband wrote a book about his legal career that was published in 2003. He is also working on a book of famous childhood homes.

Lottery joys, jolts and quips

Rebecca Paul, president and CEO of the Tennessee lottery, was sharing the joys and jolts of starting a lottery with North Carolina's lottery commission this week when she turned to Chairman Charles Sanders of Durham.

Paul said that Sanders, a one-time candidate for a U.S. Senate seat, might understand the work -- it's like a campaign. The start-up date gets set, like an election day, and the work is compressed to meet that deadline.

Sanders looked off and shrugged. He lost the Democratic primary in 1996 to Harvey Gantt of Charlotte.

"The result better be better this time," he said.