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"People play there, and they do have a reasonable chance of winning there, too," said Nesbitt, who says the lottery is a bad way to raise money from taxpayers. "I guess I'd like to say that the people in the west are the most intelligent. They've figured out that you have a better chance of getting struck by lightning than to win a big lottery prize."

Rosy forecast

Opponents of the lottery, including the Family Policy Council, had questioned the Easley administration's forecasts from the beginning as overly aggressive.

Indeed, the lottery's condition would not be viewed as a problem if not for a forecast by Easley's staff that the games would generate $425 million for education -- which assumed sales of more than $1.2 billion.

Shaheen and the lottery staff disagreed with that, but lawmakers adopted the Easley number, and that is what the education programs are now depending on.

Rep. Bill Owens of Elizabeth City, a high-ranking Democrat and one of the lottery's leading supporters, said it is too early to judge the lottery. But he acknowledged that the education programs that the games support might have to make do with a bit less money this year.

"If it only brings in $350 million, well, that's $350 million we didn't have," Owens said.

Gerlach, who once helped forecast lottery revenue in New York, said he used industry norms on per capita sales to predict what the games would bring in.

But North Carolina is different in that way, too.

Though bordered by states already running lotteries, it is one of the last to start one.

The early forecasts were generally based on states that enjoyed extra spending from their neighbors. North Carolinians were playing in Virginia and South Carolina; both states have experienced drop-offs since North Carolina started its lottery.

Tennessee and Georgia, for example, benefit because they share a border with Alabama, which does not have a lottery.

"My top 10 retailers are on the Alabama border," said Rebecca Paul Hargrove, president and CEO of the Tennessee lottery.

North Carolina doesn't have that luxury. It depends largely on the play of its residents.

"The players," Shaheen said, "just haven't decided whether they're going to do this or not."

(News researcher Paulette Stiles contributed to this report.)

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