It all hinges on freshman forward Josh McRoberts, who has not announced whether he'll enter the NBA Draft or return to play for the Blue Devils.

Underclassmen have until the end of the day on April 29 to place their names in the draft pool.

The draft is on June 28. Underclassmen can enter and then withdraw by June 17 and retain their college eligibility.

But the odds are that if McRoberts enters the draft, he'll stay in and be selected high in the first round.

At 6 feet 10 and 230 pounds and with exceptional athletic talent, McRoberts would be prized more for potential than his first-year production at Duke. On a team with seniors J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams -- both likely first-rounders -- McRoberts rarely was more than the third offensive option.

But that situation will change drastically should McRoberts return. He would be the hub of Duke's offense next season in a starting lineup that also would include guard Greg Paulus and wingmen DeMarcus Nelson and Gerald Henderson. The fifth starter could be almost anyone, including much-injured David McClure, who started three games in 2004-05.

With McRoberts, the Blue Devils should have enough size, depth and talent to retain their annual status as national contenders.

Without McRoberts, it's an entirely different situation. Should he leave, Mike Krzyzewski's 27th Duke team could be among his smallest.

The only big-men options would be current freshman Jamal Boykin (6-7, 230) and incoming freshman Brian Zoubek (7-0, 230), neither of whom has McRoberts' range of skills. Another option, 6-10 Eric Boateng, decided to transfer after one season.

The team's next-tallest players would be 6-6 McClure and two other incoming freshmen, Henderson and Jon Scheyer, both 6-5.

Rebounding almost certainly would be a challenge, and, in Duke's fast-paced transition offensive system, defensive rebounds are a must.

Even with McRoberts, who averaged 8.7 points, Duke wouldn't have back a double-digit scorer. Nelson, who was injured much of the season, averaged 7.1 points and Paulus 6.7, meaning the perimeter offense will have to be rebuilt. Henderson should help significantly on that front.

McRoberts, his family and Duke officials aren't discussing his plans. In the past, the school hasn't formally announced a player's decision to stay in school, Jon Jackson of the sports information department said.

Over the years, Duke has lost two freshmen to the NBA -- Corey Maggette in 1999 and Luol Deng in 2004. Both have found success in the pros. So would McRoberts, although there's little doubt he needs more grooming and experience.

But a factor in McRoberts' decision has to be the looming talent overload that could mark the 2007 draft. Up to eight current high school seniors, all ineligible for NBA rosters next season, probably would have gone in the 2006 first round. Among those players are big men Greg Oden (an Ohio State recruit), Kevin Durant (Texas), Spencer Hawes (Washington), Brook Lopez (Stanford), Thaddeus Young (Georgia Tech) and Brandan Wright (North Carolina).

Not all of those will play just one season in college, but the potential pool of 6-8 and taller players in the 2007 draft is deep and wide. UNC's Tyler Hansbrough and LSU's Glen Davis, among others, are big men who might leave before reaching their senior seasons.

McRoberts has to take all of that into account. Odds are he would be a first-round pick, possibly even No. 1 overall, if he stays at Duke for three seasons.

But is McRoberts willing to wait?

For Duke, that's probably the make-or-break question for the coming season.